Saturday, May 2, 2009

Conservatives Live in a Different Moral Universe -- And Here's Why It Matters

Liberals and conservatives have highly different moral priorities. And we have to understand them if we want to accomplish anything.


Tom Jacobs
April 25, 2009 - Miller-McCune.com

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Jonathan Haidt is hardly a road-rage kind of guy, but he does get irritated by self-righteous bumper stickers. The soft-spoken psychologist is acutely annoyed by certain smug slogans that adorn the cars of fellow liberals: "Support our troops: Bring them home" and "Dissent is the highest form of patriotism."

"No conservative reads those bumper stickers and thinks, 'Hmm -- so liberals are patriotic!'" he says, in a sarcastic tone of voice that jarringly contrasts with his usual subdued sincerity. "We liberals are universalists and humanists; it's not part of our morality to highly value nations. So to claim dissent is patriotic -- or that we're supporting the troops, when in fact we're opposing the war -- is disingenuous.

"It just pisses people off."

The University of Virginia scholar views such slogans as clumsy attempts to insist we all share the same values. In his view, these catch phrases are not only insincere -- they're also fundamentally wrong. Liberals and conservatives, he insists, inhabit different moral universes. There is some overlap in belief systems, but huge differences in emphasis.

In a creative attempt to move beyond red-state/blue-state clichés, Haidt has created a framework that codifies mankind's multiplicity of moralities. His outline is simultaneously startling and reassuring -- startling in its stark depiction of our differences, and reassuring in that it brings welcome clarity to an arena where murkiness of motivation often breeds contention.

He views the demonization that has marred American political debate in recent decades as a massive failure in moral imagination. We assume everyone's ethical compass points in the same direction and label those whose views don't align with our sense of right and wrong as either misguided or evil. In fact, he argues, there are multiple due norths.

"I think of liberals as colorblind," he says in a hushed tone that conveys the quiet intensity of a low-key crusader. "We have finely tuned sensors for harm and injustice but are blind to other moral dimensions. Look at the way the word 'wall' is used in liberal discourse. It's almost always related to the idea that we have to knock them down.

"Well, if we knock down all the walls, we're sitting out in the rain and cold! We need some structure."

Haidt is best known as the author of The Happiness Hypothesis, a lively look at recent research into the sources of lasting contentment. But his central focus -- and the subject of his next book, scheduled to be published in fall 2010 -- is the intersection of psychology and morality. His research examines the wellsprings of ethical beliefs and why they differ across classes and cultures.

Last September, in a widely circulated Internet essay titled Why People Vote Republican, Haidt chastised Democrats who believe blue-collar workers have been duped into voting against their economic interests. In fact, he asserted forcefully, traditionalists are driven to the GOP by moral impulses liberals don't share (which is fine) or understand (which is not).

To some, this dynamic is deeply depressing. "The educated moral relativism worldview is fundamentally incompatible with the way 50 percent of America thinks, and stereotypes about out-of-touch elitist coastal Democrats are basically correct," sighed the snarky Web site Gawker.com as it summarized his studies.

But others -- including many fellow liberal academics -- have greeted Haidt's ideas as liberating.

"Jonathan is a thoughtful and somewhat flamboyant theorist," says Dan McAdams, a Northwestern University research psychologist and award-winning author. "We don't have that many of those in academic psychology. I really appreciate his lively mind."

"Psychology, as a field, has lots and lots of data, but we don't have very many good new ideas," agrees Dennis Proffitt, chairman of the University of Virginia psychology department. "They are rare in our field, but Jon is full of good new ideas."

An unapologetic liberal atheist, Haidt has a remarkable ability to describe opposing viewpoints without condescension or distortion. He forcefully expresses his own political opinions but understands how they are informed by his underlying moral orientation. In an era where deadlocked debates so often end with a dismissive "you just don't get it," he gets it.

Four years ago, he recalls, "I wanted to help Democrats press the right buttons because the Republicans were out-messaging them.

"I no longer want to be a part of that effort. What I want to do now is help both sides understand the other, so that policies can be made based on something more than misguided fear of what the other side is up to."

Haidt's journey into ethical self-awareness began during his senior year of high school in Westchester County, N.Y. "I had an existential crisis straight out of Woody Allen," he recalls. "If there's no God, how can there be a meaning to life? And if there's no meaning, why should I do my homework? So I decided to become a philosophy major and find out the meaning of life."

Once he began his studies at Yale, however, he found philosophy "generally boring, dry and irrelevant." So he gradually gravitated to the field of psychology, ultimately earning his doctorate at the University of Pennsylvania. There he met several influential teachers, including anthropologist Alan Fiske and Paul Rozin, an expert on the psychology of food and the emotion of disgust. Fascinated by Rozin's research, Haidt wrote his dissertation on moral judgment of disgusting but harmless actions - a study that helped point the way to his later findings.

As part of that early research, Haidt and a colleague, Brazilian psychologist Silvia Koller, posed a series of provocative questions to people in both Brazil and the U.S. One of the most revealing was: How would you react if a family ate the body of its pet dog, which had been accidentally run over that morning?

"There were differences between nations, but the biggest differences were across social classes within each nation," Haidt recalls. "Students at a private school in Philadelphia thought it was just as gross, but it wasn't harming anyone; their attitude was rationalist and harm-based. But when you moved down in social class or into Brazil, morality is based not on just harm. It's also about loyalty and family and authority and respect and purity. That was an important early finding."

On the strength of that paper, Haidt went to work for Richard Shweder, a cultural anthropologist at the University of Chicago who arranged for his postdoc fellow to spend three months in India. Haidt refers to his time in Bhubaneshwar -- an ancient city full of Hindu temples that retains a traditional form of morality with rigid cast and gender roles -- as transformative.

"I found there is not really a way to say 'thank you' or 'you're welcome' (in the local language)," he recalls. "There are ways of acknowledging appreciation, but saying 'thank you' and 'you're welcome' didn't make any emotional sense to them. Your stomach doesn't say 'thank you' to your esophagus for passing the food to it! What I finally came to understand was to stop acting as if everybody was equal. Rather, each person had a job to do, and that made the social system run smoothly."

Gradually getting past his reflexive Western attitudes, he realized that "the Confucian/Hindu traditional value structure is very good for maintaining order and continuity and stability, which is very important in the absence of good central governance. But if the goal is creativity, scientific insight and artistic achievement, these traditional societies pretty well squelch it. Modern liberalism, with its support for self-expression, is much more effective. I really saw the yin-yang."

After returning to the U.S., Haidt accepted a position at the University of Virginia, where he continued to challenge the established wisdom in moral psychology. His colleagues were using data from middle-class American college students to draw sweeping conclusions about human nature. Proffitt remembers him arguing "with some passion" that they needed to widen their scope.

"Jon recognizes that diversity is not just the politically correct thing to do - it's also the intelligent thing to do," he says. "Seeing things from multiple perspectives gives you a much better view of the whole."

In January 2005 -- shortly after President Bush won re-election, to the shock and dismay of the left -- Haidt was invited by a group of Democrats in Charlottesville, Va., to give a talk on morality and politics. There, for the first time, he explained to a group of liberals his conception of the moral world of cultural conservatives.


"They were very open to what I was saying," he says. "I discovered there was a real hunger among liberals to figure out what the hell was going on."

Haidt's framework of political morality can be traced back to a dispute between two important thinkers: Shweder, who would go on to become his mentor, and legendary Harvard psychologist Lawrence Kohlberg. In his 1981 volume The Philosophy of Moral Development, Kohlberg essentially argued that other moral systems are mere stepping-stones on a path that will eventually lead the entire world to embrace Western humanist values. Reviewing the book for the journal Contemporary Psychology, Shweder politely but effectively tore that notion apart.

Citing his extensive research on traditional Indian culture, Shweder pointed out the inconsistencies and lack of convincing evidence behind Kohlberg's arguments. Agreeing with philosopher Isaiah Berlin, Shweder asserted -- and continues to assert -- that a range of ethical systems have always coexisted and most likely always will. In a 1997 paper co-written with three colleagues, he broke down primal moral impulses into a "big three": autonomy, community and divinity.

Haidt found Shweder's ideas persuasive but incomplete. Agreeing with evolutionary theorist James Q. Wilson, he concluded that any full view of the origins of human morality would have to take into account not only culture (as analyzed by anthropologists) but also evolution. He reasoned it was highly unlikely humans would care so much about morality unless moral instincts and emotions had become a part of human nature. He began to suspect that morality evolved not just to help individuals as they competed and cooperated with other individuals, but also to help groups as they competed and cooperated with other groups.

"Morality is not just about how we treat each other, as most liberals think," he argues. "It is also about binding groups together and supporting essential institutions."

With all that in mind, Haidt identified five foundational moral impulses. As succinctly defined by Northwestern University's McAdams, they are:

• Harm/care. It is wrong to hurt people; it is good to relieve suffering.

• Fairness/reciprocity. Justice and fairness are good; people have certain rights that need to be upheld in social interactions.

• In-group loyalty. People should be true to their group and be wary of threats from the outside. Allegiance, loyalty and patriotism are virtues; betrayal is bad.

• Authority/respect. People should respect social hierarchy; social order is necessary for human life.

• Purity/sanctity. The body and certain aspects of life are sacred. Cleanliness and health, as well as their derivatives of chastity and piety, are all good. Pollution, contamination and the associated character traits of lust and greed are all bad.

Haidt's research reveals that liberals feel strongly about the first two dimensions -- preventing harm and ensuring fairness -- but often feel little, or even feel negatively, about the other three. Conservatives, on the other hand, are drawn to loyalty, authority and purity, which liberals tend to think of as backward or outdated. People on the right acknowledge the importance of harm prevention and fairness but not with quite the same energy or passion as those on the left.

Libertarian essayist Will Wilkinson of the Cato Institute -- one of many self-reflective political thinkers who are intrigued by Haidt's hypothesis -- puts it this way: "While the five foundations are universal, cultures build upon each to varying degrees. Imagine five adjustable slides on a stereo equalizer that can be turned up or down to produce different balances of sound. An equalizer preset like 'Show Tunes' will turn down the bass and 'Hip Hop' will turn it up, but neither turns it off.

"Similarly, societies modulate the dimension of moral emotions differently, creating a distinctive cultural profile of moral feeling, judgment and justification. If you're a sharia devotee ready to stone adulterers and slaughter infidels, you have purity and in-group pushed up to 11. PETA members, who vibrate to the pain of other species, have turned in-group way down and harm way up."

McAdams was first exposed to these ideas about three years ago, when he heard Haidt speak at a conference. Around that same time, he was analyzing information he had compiled from interviews with 150 highly religious middle-aged Americans -- men and women from across the political spectrum who had described in detail the ways they find meaning in their lives. Realizing this was an excellent test case for Haidt's theories, McAdams started comparing the comments of self-described liberals and conservatives.

Sure enough, "Conservatives spoke in moving terms about respecting authority and order," he found. "Liberals invested just as much emotion in describing their commitment to justice and equality. Liberals feel authority is a minor-league moral issue; for us, the major leaguers are harm and fairness."

It's hard to play ball when you can't agree who deserves to be a big leaguer.

Of Haidt's five moral realms, the one that causes the most friction between cosmopolitan liberals and traditionalist conservatives is purity/sanctity. To a 21st-century secular liberal, the concept barely registers. Haidt notes it was part of the Western vocabulary as recently as the Victorian era but lost its force in the early 20th century when modern rules of proper hygiene were codified. With the physical properties of contamination understood, the moral symbolism of impurity no longer carried much weight.

But the impulse remains lodged in our psyches, turning up in both obvious and surprising ways. You can hear strong echoes of it when the pope rails against materialism, insisting we have been put on Earth to serve a loftier purpose than shopping until we drop. It can also be found in the nondenominational spiritual belief that we all contain within us a piece of the divine. (Although it's sometimes used in a tongue-in-cheek way in our society, the phrase "my body is a temple" is reflective of the purity/sanctity impulse.)

"The question is: Do you see the world as simply matter?" Haidt asks. "If so, people can do whatever they want, as long as they don't hurt other people. Or do you see more dimensions to life? Do you want to live in a higher, nobler way than simply the pursuit of pleasure? That often requires not acting on your impulses, making sacrifices for others. It implies a reverence -- which is a nonrational feeling -- towards human life."

Consider two letters to the editor in a recent issue of the Ventura (Calif.) Breeze. The weekly newspaper has been chronicling a controversy about a 19th-century cemetery that gradually fell into disrepair and, since the early 1960s, has been used as a dog park. Some descendents of the people buried there are demanding that it be restored as a proper burial place.

"Why is there even a debate?" wrote one angry resident. He referred to the park as "this holy ground" and admonished city officials: "Your values and judgment need some serious realignment." But a second reader looked at the controversy from a more practical perspective, noting that public funds are limited in these tough economic times. Besides, he added, "the park is full of life now, and I'm sorry if this sounds harsh, but life is for the living."

Both arguments are rooted in firm moral beliefs. It's just that for the first correspondent, purity/sanctity is paramount, while for the second it's of minimal importance.

Not surprisingly, Haidt's data suggests purity/sanctity is the moral foundation that best predicts an individual's attitude toward abortion. It also helps explain opposition to gay marriage. "If you think society is made up of individuals, and each individual has the right to do what he or she wants if they aren't hurting anybody, it's unfathomable why anyone would oppose gay marriage," he says. "Liberals assume opponents must be homophobic.

"I know feelings of disgust do play into it. When you're disgusted by something, you tend to come up with reasons why it's wrong. But cultural conservatives, with their strong emphasis on social order, don't see marriage primarily as an expression of one individual's desire for another. They see the family as the foundation of society, and they fear that foundation is dissolving."

Haidt doesn't want religious fundamentalists dictating public policy to ensure it lines up with their specific moral code. Even if you perceive purity as a major-league issue, it doesn't have to be on steroids. But he argues it is important that liberals recognize the strength that impulse retains with cultural conservatives and respect it rather than dismissing it as primitive.

"I see liberalism and conservatism as opposing principles that work well when in balance," he says, noting that authority needs to be both upheld (as conservatives insist) and challenged (as liberals maintain). "It's a basic design principle: You get better responsiveness if you have two systems pushing against each other. As individuals, we are very bad at finding the flaws in our own arguments. We all have a distorted perception of reality."

Spend some time reading Haidt, and chances are you'll begin to view day-to-day political arguments through a less-polarized lens. Should the Guantanamo Bay prison be closed? Of course, say liberals, whose harm/fairness receptors are acute. Not so fast, argue conservatives, whose finely attuned sense of in-group loyalty points to a proactive attitude toward outside threats.

Why any given individual grows up to become a conservative or a liberal is unclear. Haidt, like most contemporary social scientists, points to a combination of genes and environment -- not one's family of origin so much as the neighborhood and society whose values you absorbed. (Current research suggests that peers may actually have a stronger impact than parents in this regard.)

In his quest to "help people overcome morally motivated misunderstandings," Haidt has set up a couple of Web sites, www.civilpolitics.org and www.yourmorals.org. At the latter, you can take a quiz that will locate you on his moral map. For fun, you can also answer the questions you think the way your political opposite would respond. Haidt had both liberals and conservatives do just that in the laboratory, and the results are sobering for those on the left: Conservatives understood them a lot better than they understood conservatives.

"Liberals tend to have a very optimistic view of human nature," he says. "They tend to be uncomfortable about punishment -- of their own children, of criminals, anyone. I do believe that if liberals ran the whole world, it would fall apart. But if conservatives ran the whole world, it would be so restrictive and uncreative that it would be rather unpleasant, too."

The concept of authority resonates so weakly in liberals that "it makes it difficult for liberal organizations to function," Haidt says. (Will Rogers was right on target when he proclaimed, "I don't belong to an organized political party. I'm a Democrat.") On the other hand, he notes, the Republicans' tendency to blindly follow their leader proved disastrous over the past eight years.

"Look how horribly the GOP had to screw up to alienate many conservatives," muses Dallas Morning News columnist and BeliefNet blogger Rod Dreher, an Orthodox Christian, unorthodox conservative and Haidt fan. "In the end, the GOP, the conservative movement and the nation would have been better served had we on the right not been so yellow-dog loyal. But as Haidt shows, it's in our nature."

Like Wilkinson, Dreher doesn't fit cleanly into the left-right spectrum; he reports that taking Haidt's test (showing he scored high on certain liberal values but also on some conservative ones) helped him understand why. He's appreciative of that insight and admiring of the way the psychologist is able to set aside the inherent prejudice we all share in favor of our own moral outlook. "It's hard for any of us to get outside our own heads and perform acts of empathy with people we don't much like," he notes.

In higher education, as in so many other fields, the best way to negotiate a pay raise is to get a competing offer. Not infrequently, an academic will entertain an offer from an institution he or she isn't really interested in joining, specifically so he can get a salary offer, take it back to his current employer and demand it be matched.

Haidt found himself in just that situation a few years back. But as he explained to Proffitt, his department chair, he was uncomfortable with the notion of lying to gain leverage.

"He told me, 'I know that if I was offered the position, I could get a big raise here. But I study ethics! I can't do that! That would be wrong!' He felt he wouldn't be playing fair with the people from the other university, who were putting out money and effort to recruit him."

"That game is played by a lot of people, but Jon would not," Proffitt says. "He elected not to do that on purely ethical grounds. That decision cost him at least $30,000 a year."

But was he guided by the harm/care instinct? Or fairness/reciprocity? Or did the conservative value of in-group loyalty, which tends to lie dormant in liberals such as Haidt, emerge under these unusual circumstances and convince him to be true to his school?

The most likely answer is "all of the above." The point is Haidt realized the wrongness of that behavior in his gut and acted on instinct.

In making such decisions, he is setting a rigorous moral example for his son, Max, who turns 3 in July. Haidt would be pleased if, by the time Max gets to secondary school, the study of ethics is part of the curriculum. "If I had my way, moral psychology would be a mandatory part of high-school civics classes, and civics classes would be a mandatory part of all Americans' education," he says. "Understanding there are multiple perspectives on the good society, all of which are morally motivated, would go a long way toward helping us interact in a civil manner."

Shweder cheers him on in that crusade. "I think this is terribly important," he says. "People are not going to converge on their judgments of what's good or bad, or right and wrong. Diversity is inherent in our species. And in a globalized world, we're going to be bumping into each other a lot."

Whether they're addressing the U.S. Congress or U.N. General Assembly, Haidt has astute advice for policy advocates: Frame your argument to appeal to as many points as possible on the moral spectrum. He believes President Obama did just that in his inaugural address, which utilized "a broad array of virtue words, including 'courage,' 'loyalty,' 'patriotism' and 'duty,' to reach out and reassure conservatives."

Haidt notes that the environmental movement was started by liberals, who were presumably driven by the harm/care impulse. But conservative Evangelical Christians are increasingly taking up the cause, propelled by the urge to respect authority. "They're driven by the idea that God gave man dominion over the Earth, and keeping the planet healthy is our sacred responsibility," he notes. "If we simply rape, pillage, destroy and consume, we're abusing the power given to us by God.

"The climate crisis and the economic crisis are interesting, because neither has a human enemy. These are not crises that turn us against an out-group, so they're not really designed to bring us together, but they can be used for that. I hope and think we are ready, demographically and historically, for a less polarized era."

But that will require peeling off some bumper stickers. Contrary to the assertion adhered onto Volvos, dissent and patriotism are very different impulses. But Haidt persuasively argues that both are essential to a healthy democracy, and the interplay between them -- when kept within respectful bounds -- is a source of vitality and strength. "Morality," he insists, "is a team sport."

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Tom Jacobs is a veteran journalist with more than 20 years experience at daily newspapers. He has served as a staff writer for the Los Angeles Daily News and the Santa Barbara News-Press. His work has also appeared in the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune and Ventura County Star.

The Class Clowns

Once the masters of evil politics, Republicans have been reduced to half-assed buffoonery, providing comic relief for desperate times.


Matt Taibbi
Rolling Stone

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Following the Republican Party of late has been a movingly depressing experience, sort of like watching Old Yeller die — if Old Yeller were a worm-infested feral bitch who spent the past eight years biting children at bus stops and shitting in neighborhood swimming pools. As a useful force in American politics, the Republicans have been dead for a while now. But in the seven months since Sarah Palin's nomination, they have taken on an intriguing new role: providing much-needed comic relief during dark times, serving as the unofficial rodeo clowns of the Financial Crisis Era.

If there were any doubts about the once-mighty party's hilarious new role in American society, they vanished in recent weeks, as the Republican leadership's attempt to stop the passage of Barack Obama's budget turned into one of the most half-assed public-relations campaigns in congressional history. Watching this amazingly amateurish performance by a party that not long ago was led by highly skilled and ruthless political assassins like Tom DeLay and Karl Rove was just the latest bummer in the spiraling American-decline story. Not only don't we make good cars or airplanes anymore — now our Republicans have apparently lost their touch for evil politics.

The comedy began in late March when, after weeks of sniping about the high spending in the president's budget, the Republicans — steered by House Minority Leader John Boehner, one of the few influential Republicans in Congress to survive the Bush era — called a press conference to release an 18-page "alternative budget." The document quickly entered Washington lore as one of the most preposterous things a politician has ever handed, with a straight face, to a reporter on the Hill. Intending to counter accusations by Democrats that Republicans had become a "Party of No," blindly opposing every Obama initiative without a real plan, Boehner sternly waved the thinnish "Republican Road to Recovery" pamphlet at reporters gathered at his presser.

"The president said, 'We haven't seen a budget yet out of Republicans,'" Boehner croaked. "Well, it's not true, because here it is, Mr. President."

Except that "it" contained almost nothing inside. The actual text, which included no specifics or numbers at all, was full of wildly general phrases like "Republicans would fully fund our ongoing commitments overseas while devoting the entirety of any savings from reduced fighting to deficit reduction." As one observer put it, it was like an invasion plan that read, "Send ships, land troops, kill Germans."

Not only that, the pamphlet looked like it had been laid out by a college student trying desperately to meet his professor's requirement for "20 pages, double-spaced" — unnecessarily huge graphs on almost every page, fonts jacked up to readable-for-the-legally-blind size, absurdly placed clip-art images (to wit: photo of cute child with broken arm, gratefully gazing at the caption "Provide Universal Access to Affordable Health Care"). While reporters flipped through the idiotic text, searching in vain for content, Minority Whip Eric Cantor, who had already made brief introductory remarks, stealthily slipped out of the room, leaving Boehner to the wolves.

The onslaught started quickly. "There's no detail in here," grumbled one reporter.

"This is the blueprint for where we're going," Boehner barked. "Are you asking about some other document?"

Reporters stared at each other. "What about some numbers?" another asked.

Republicans, Boehner dithered, would provide details on the budget "next week."

Opposition politicians rushed on the air to rip the Republican nonbudget budget to shreds. The Democratic National Committee released an online ad that opened with a graphic: "This DNC ad is brought to you by the number zero. That's how many numbers are in the GOP's 'budget.'" Even White House press secretary Robert Gibbs got in on the act, lauding the document's depth. "It took me several minutes to read it," he quipped.

Is Israel heading for clash with US?

Katya Adler
April 28, 2009 - BBC News

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It is Israel's Independence Day - traditionally time for leading Israeli politicians to give big interviews about their country's past and future.

Israel's new Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has remained conspicuously tight-lipped.

Israeli voters went to the polls in February.

Mr Netanyahu knows their number one priority is personal and national security.

This would have been an ideal moment for him to set the scene as regards foreign policy, but it looks like Israelis - and the impatiently expectant international community - will have to wait a little while longer.

In a region where sparks can fly and wars can start without too much warning, Mr Netanyahu's spokesmen have announced the world view of this new Israeli government will only be revealed around 18 May.

This is when Mr Netanyahu is scheduled to meet US President Barack Obama in Washington.

In the meantime, the Israeli leader's defence and foreign ministers have dropped some heavy hints (though, not unusually for tumultuous Israeli government politics, the declarations were not always harmonious).

They, as well as Washington's statements and comments made by Arab leaders, are being closely monitored.

Israelis and Middle East-watchers are keen to know if there will be an ugly clash at the White House next month.

In the end, it is unlikely, but the players' stated positions make it perfectly possible.

Mr Netanyahu has a track record of difficult relations with his country's closest ally, dating back to his previous term as Israel's premier back in the late 1990s.

* Complex reality

Clearly, a key issue is Palestinian statehood.

Mr Netanyahu and his foreign minister have preferred to remain vague on the issue.

Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman claims boosting the Palestinian economy is more of a priority.

He insists that the international community drop phrases like "land-for-peace" or "two-state solution".

He says they oversimplify a complex reality.

Defence Minister Ehud Barak said in an interview published on Tuesday that he believed peace could be achieved within three years.

Mr Lieberman has promised "new approaches, new ideas, new visions".

It is questionable whether that will be good enough for Barack Obama.

Since taking office, he and his Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, have gone out of their way to insist a two state solution is the only solution to the decades old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

They also appear keen to push for wider regional peace.

* 'New war?'

This month Jordan's King Abdullah became the first Middle East leader to be received in Washington by President Barack Obama.

He urged Israel's acceptance of what has become known as the Arab peace initiative, where Israel would achieve diplomatic recognition in the Arab world in exchange for pulling back to its pre-1967 borders, allowing for the formation of a viable Palestinian state.

King Abdullah said it was imperative the US take a forceful role in resolving Israeli-Palestinian relations.

If no progress was made, he warned, the region was facing a new war.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said King Abdullah spoke on behalf of the wider Arab world.

President Obama seemed sympathetic to the message.

He said: "We can't talk forever... at some point steps have to be taken so that people can see progress on the ground. And that will be something that we will expect to take place in the coming months."

But how far is he willing to push Israel? US administrations are famously reluctant to come to diplomatic blows with the country some describe as America's 51st state.

* 'Biggest obstacle'

It could all come down to Iran.

While in opposition, Mr Netanyahu repeatedly said Iran was the biggest threat to Israel's existence.

He is very likely to deliver this message and ask for assurances during his visit to Washington.

President Obama may press for progress on the Palestinian issue in return.

Speaking in Washington on Friday, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said: "For Israel to get the strong support it is looking for vis-a-vis Iran, it can't stay on the sidelines with respect to the Palestinians and peace efforts. They go hand-in-hand."

International diplomats have speculated that Sunni Arab governments which fear Iran feel they need clear steps forward towards an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal in order for their nations to accept Arab backing of US-Israeli moves against a fellow Muslim nation.

Publicly the leaders of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations insist the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the core Middle East issue.

Until that is resolved there can be no regional peace.

But Israel's Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, insists what he describes as "the Iranian problem" must be resolved before anything else.

"The biggest obstacle to a comprehensive solution is not Israel. It's not the Palestinians. It's the Iranians."

"It's impossible to combat any problem in our region without resolving the Iranian problem.

"This relates to Lebanon, to influence in Syria, their deep involvement with Egypt, in the Gaza Strip, in Iraq.

"If the international community wants to resolve its Middle East problems, it's impossible because the biggest obstacle to this solution is the Iranians."

* Tough position

Mr Lieberman recently told Barak Obama's Middle East envoy, George Mitchell, that 15 years of peace talks with Palestinians had "brought neither results nor solutions".

To obtain true regional stability, the US should focus instead on preventing Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, he said.

Mr Netanyahu has often said he believes it better to take a tough position at the outset of negotiations in order to have bargaining possibilities.

The most likely scenario is that he and President Obama will do their best to find common ground during their talks in Washington.

Israel's foreign and defence ministers have clearly quashed domestic and international speculation that the Netanyahu government, dismayed at the Obama administration's efforts to engage Iran, favoured going it alone against Iran with their own military strike.

Both men say they are open to normalising relations with Syria (something Mr Obama favours strongly, though Mr Lieberman says is unlikely because at the moment, he says, there is nothing to talk about).

Both men say they favour advancing stalled talks with the Palestinian Authority.

There is room for discussion, but Palestinians in particular are hoping Mr Obama will not just talk but act tough on the issue of expanding Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank.

Here, Mr Netanyahu has been clear: he sees no reason to stop the building.

Mr Abbas has been equally clear - he will not sit down with the Israelis until all settlement growth is frozen.

President Obama has also invited him to the White House next month.

Australia Muscling up as America's Power Wanes

Brendan Nicholson
May 1, 2009 - The Age (Australia)

.....

Australia needs to massively bolster its military capacity to deal with the rise of China and the possible decline of American influence in the region, according to a Defence white paper to be released today.

The paper also redraws the policies of the Howard era, making it clear that Australia would not necessarily follow its main ally into expeditionary conflicts such as the Iraq war unless there was a threat to our "wider strategic interests".

"We must never put ourselves in a position where the price of our own security is a requirement to put Australian troops at risk in distant theatres of war where we have no direct interests at stake," it says.

The white paper - the first in nine years - says that after the defence of Australia, the nation's next priority is to ensure "stability and security in the South Pacific and East Timor".

It details the purchase of a massive list of military hardware expected to cost more than $100 billion. The weapons include a new generation of very long range submarines to provide "strategic strike" with cruise missiles and 100 state-of-the-art Joint Strike Fighters.

The paper points to China as a possible threat in a future world where the power of Australia's key ally, the United States, gradually declines.

In his preface to the document, Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon said the world had changed significantly since 2000, with the increased threat of terrorism and cyber warfare. But the biggest change had been the rise of China, the emergence of India and the beginning of the end of the dominance of the US, Mr Fitzgibbon said.

The report goes on to predict that "shows of force by rising powers are likely to become more common as their military capabilities expand".

The paper has already alarmed China with a Chinese diplomatic source telling The Age on Thursday it now looks like Prime Minister Kevin Rudd "wants to act on behalf of America against China".

In an apparent reference to Afghanistan and Iraq, the paper says: "The Government has decided that it is not a principal task for the ADF to be generally prepared to deploy to the Middle East, or regions such as Central and South Asia or Africa."

On the extent to which Australia can rely on the US for protection, the paper asks: "Will the United States continue to play over the very long term the strategic role that it has undertaken since the end of World War II?"

While acknowledging that no other power will have the capacity to challenge US global primacy over the coming two decades, it says the US might find itself "preoccupied and stretched in some parts of the world such that its ability to shift attention and project power into other regions, when it needs to, is constrained".

The plans outlined in the white paper will change the Australian Defence Force from a broadly defensive organisation with a bit of everything to a much more focused force able to launch damaging attacks vast distances from home.

The plan is for a potent defence force to deal with strategic uncertainties and military modernisation in the region.

The submarines, to be built in Adelaide, will be equipped with 20 or more cruise missiles, probably US Tomahawks, capable of hitting a target smaller than a car 2500 km away and delivering special forces to their destinations.

Similar cruise missiles will be fitted to the Navy's potent air warfare destroyers and new frigates.

And the Navy's anti-submarine capability will improve significantly with a new class of frigates designed to hunt down and destroy submarines. The oceans closer to home will be protected by a new class of warships, Offshore Combatant Vessels. They will be used for border security, to protect offshore resources, to carry out hydrographic and environmental research and potentially, to clear anti-shipping mines.

The ADF is likely to get seven large unmanned patrol planes - probably the US-built Global Hawk - capable of staying airborne for days at a time and covering huge areas in search of terrorists, enemy forces and smugglers of people and drugs.

Australia's agencies will also be given the resources they need to engage in cyber warfare - defending Australia's computer systems against sabotage and attacking an enemy's computer systems to cause economic chaos. Intelligence gathering resources also get a big boost.

By 2030 Australia's annual defence spending is likely to have jumped from its present $22 billion to nearly $40 billion.

To help pay for it's new equipment, the ADF has been told to find internal savings of $20 billion.

That would be enough to cover the $16 billion cost of the strike fighters and some of the submarines at $3 billion each but some in the Government are concerned that Defence will not get anywhere near this target.

Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull warned the Government could become fixated on China in its strategic thinking to the exclusion of other nations and other issues.

"Let me state this plainly: it makes no sense for Australia in 2009 to base its long-term strategic policy on the highly contentious proposition that Australia is on an inevitable collision course with a militarily aggressive China."

China was but one major power among several major powers in the region, Mr Turnbull said.

For Mortgages, a Pain in the Alt-A

Paul Jackson
May 1, 2009 - HousingWire.com

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Early evidence of at least some relative improvement among securitized subprime loans likely won't matter much to mortgage markets overall, thanks to fast-increasing pain in other sectors of the mortgage market. According to early surveillance data released Friday by Clayton Holdings, Inc., both subprime and Alt-A delinquencies continue to grow, but patterns within overall delinquency trends show just where the pain in the mortgage market really has shifted to.

First, the good news. The subprime credit sector may actually be seeing some pressure ease somewhat, according to Clayton data, which found that the subprime 30-day delinquency rate as a percentage of active balance has actually fallen in the past several months. (Yes, really).

The firm said that for loans it monitors, the U.S. subprime 30-day delinquency rate fell to 5.96% at the end of February, compared to 6.54% in Dec. 2008. Part of that seems to be due to soaring repayments, as one month CPRs (prepayment rates) soared as much as 31% during March, depending on vintage. But the easing of early delinquencies among subprime borrowers could also reflect a seasonal trend, too — for those unversed in mortgage servicing, early delinquencies tend to spike during the holiday season, ostensibly as distracted borrowers miss payments or allocate their money towards holiday spending rather than mortgage payments.

That's pretty much all of the good news.

While early-stage delinquencies among subprime borrowers have been easing in recent months, those subprime borrowers already in trouble are seeing their woes multiply quickly. Clayton's data found that subprime loans in any stage of delinquency rose to 38.0% of active balance by the end of February, up slightly from 36.7% at the end of last year. Increases in late-stage delinquencies and foreclosure starts are more than swamping any decreases in new defaults among subprime borrowers, leading to the aggregate increase in the overall default rate, Clayton noted. In California, for example, subprime 90+ day DQs excluding foreclosures and REO are now touching nearly 12%, roughly double year-ago levels.

Alt-A borrowers don't have nearly as nuanced a story, relative to their subprime brethren. Among Alt-A loans monitored by Clayton, a simple phrase sums up most recent loan performance: from bad to far worse. A full 26% of those Alt-A loans monitored by the firm were in some stage of delinquency at the end of February, up dramatically from one year earlier, numbers that are looking increasingly subprime-like. More pain in this loan category may appear on the horizon soon, too, with the percentage of active Alt-A loans facing rate changes set to spike beginning in October of this year, Clayton's data showed.

Want to see evidence of how rough things really are in Alt-A? Among 2007 Alt-A first liens monitored by Clayton, 33.58% are 60+ days delinquent, up roughly 5 percent from January 2009. And that increase came despite a 2.1% jump in prepayment rates, a 14.89% decrease in roll rates, and a 25% increase in the cure rate. (Think on that for a minute: cures are up, prepays are up, rolls are down — but 60+ day DQs are still rising anyway.)