Thursday, May 21, 2009

Climate Change Odds Much Worse Than Thought

The wheel above depicts researchers' estimation of the range of probability of potential global temperature change over the next 100 years if no policy change is enacted on curbing greenhouse gas emissions. The wheel on the left assumes that aggressive policy is enacted. (Image courtesy / MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change)

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May 20, 2009 - ScienceDaily

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The most comprehensive modeling yet carried out on the likelihood of how much hotter the Earth's climate will get in this century shows that without rapid and massive action, the problem will be about twice as severe as previously estimated six years ago - and could be even worse than that.

The study uses the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model, a detailed computer simulation of global economic activity and climate processes that has been developed and refined by the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change since the early 1990s. The new research involved 400 runs of the model with each run using slight variations in input parameters, selected so that each run has about an equal probability of being correct based on present observations and knowledge. Other research groups have estimated the probabilities of various outcomes, based on variations in the physical response of the climate system itself. But the MIT model is the only one that interactively includes detailed treatment of possible changes in human activities as well - such as the degree of economic growth, with its associated energy use, in different countries.

Study co-author Ronald Prinn, the co-director of the Joint Program and director of MIT's Center for Global Change Science, says that, regarding global warming, it is important "to base our opinions and policies on the peer-reviewed science," he says. And in the peer-reviewed literature, the MIT model, unlike any other, looks in great detail at the effects of economic activity coupled with the effects of atmospheric, oceanic and biological systems. "In that sense, our work is unique," he says.

The new projections, published this month in the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Climate, indicate a median probability of surface warming of 5.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, with a 90% probability range of 3.5 to 7.4 degrees. This can be compared to a median projected increase in the 2003 study of just 2.4 degrees. The difference is caused by several factors rather than any single big change. Among these are improved economic modeling and newer economic data showing less chance of low emissions than had been projected in the earlier scenarios. Other changes include accounting for the past masking of underlying warming by the cooling induced by 20th century volcanoes, and for emissions of soot, which can add to the warming effect. In addition, measurements of deep ocean temperature rises, which enable estimates of how fast heat and carbon dioxide are removed from the atmosphere and transferred to the ocean depths, imply lower transfer rates than
previously estimated.

Prinn says these and a variety of other changes based on new measurements and new analyses changed the odds on what could be expected in this century in the "no policy" scenarios - that is, where there are no policies in place that specifically induce reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Overall, the changes "unfortunately largely summed up all in the same direction," he says. "Overall, they stacked up so they caused more projected global warming."

While the outcomes in the "no policy" projections now look much worse than before, there is less change from previous work in the projected outcomes if strong policies are put in place now to drastically curb greenhouse gas emissions. Without action, "there is significantly more risk than we previously estimated," Prinn says. "This increases the urgency for significant policy action."

To illustrate the range of probabilities revealed by the 400 simulations, Prinn and the team produced a "roulette wheel" that reflects the latest relative odds of various levels of temperature rise. The wheel provides a very graphic representation of just how serious the potential climate impacts are.

"There's no way the world can or should take these risks," Prinn says. And the odds indicated by this modeling may actually understate the problem, because the model does not fully incorporate other positive feedbacks that can occur, for example, if increased temperatures caused a large-scale melting of permafrost in arctic regions and subsequent release of large quantities of methane, a very potent greenhouse gas. Including that feedback "is just going to make it worse," Prinn says.

The lead author of the paper describing the new projections is Andrei Sokolov, research scientist in the Joint Program. Other authors, besides Sokolov and Prinn, include Peter H. Stone, Chris E. Forest, Sergey Paltsev, Adam Schlosser, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, John Reilly, Marcus Sarofim, Chien Wang and Henry D. Jacoby, all of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, as well as Mort Webster of MIT's Engineering Systems Division and D. Kicklighter, B. Felzer and J. Melillo of the Marine Biological Laboratory at Woods Hole.

Prinn stresses that the computer models are built to match the known conditions, processes and past history of the relevant human and natural systems, and the researchers are therefore dependent on the accuracy of this current knowledge. Beyond this, "we do the research, and let the results fall where they may," he says. Since there are so many uncertainties, especially with regard to what human beings will choose to do and how large the climate response will be, "we don't pretend we can do it accurately. Instead, we do these 400 runs and look at the spread of the odds."

Because vehicles last for years, and buildings and powerplants last for decades, it is essential to start making major changes through adoption of significant national and international policies as soon as possible, Prinn says. "The least-cost option to lower the risk is to start now and steadily transform the global energy system over the coming decades to low or zero greenhouse gas-emitting technologies."

This work was supported in part by grants from the Office of Science of the U.S. Dept. of Energy, and by the industrial and foundation sponsors of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change.

TOON

Charlie Crist: Boon or Bain of the GOP?

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Adele Stan
May 21, 2009 - Huffington Post

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Is Charlie Crist the face of a new Republican Party, or a harbinger of the GOP's demise?

He's handsome, personable and popular: a dream candidate for Florida's 2010 Senate race. And Charlie Crist, currently the Sunshine State's Republican governor, will probably win. That makes him a good thing for the Republican Party, right?

Yes and no. The GOP is desperate for another vote -- or 10 -- in the Senate, so Crist's bid sounds like good news to the ears of the party's Senate leaders. With his moderation on fiscal policy, his populist crusade against insurance companies and a rather solid record on right-wing social policy, Crist would seem to be a pretty palatable offering to conservative suburbanites, and perhaps even offers a model for the recovery of the national party -- that is, if his candidacy doesn't smash it up for good.

That's a serious "if". While Crist doesn't quite divide the party six ways to Sunday, his candidacy does slice it up in several. First, there's the Latino problem. Barack Obama's popular victory in 2008 is arguably owed to a significant shift of Latinos from the Republican to the Democratic column, thanks to right-wing demagoguery on immigration. Florida's Latino Republican leaders, reports Politico's Ben Smith, are hopping mad over the early embrace of the Crist candidacy by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and Sen. John Cornyn (Tex.), head of the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, over former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, a young Cuban-American conservative.

Then there's the religious right, many of whose members have never forgiven Crist for his role, as Florida's attorney general, in allowing life support to be withdrawn from Terri Schiavo, a woman in a vegetative state whose fate became a cause célèbre of right-wing Catholics and evangelicals. (Crist defines himself as "pro-life", supporting parental notification laws and a ban on certain abortion procedures.) Right-wingers, both religious and secular, are furious with Crist not only for his happy acceptance of federal stimulus money from the Obama plan, but for Crist's decision to stand with the popular Democratic president at a campaign-style rally touting the stimulus.

Florida's business community is none too pleased with Crist's campaign, in the wake of Hurricane Rita, against insurers who appeared to be stiffing their policy-holders. Crist's crusade resulted in the creation of a state-run insurer, the Citizens Property Insurance Corp., which commercial insurers portray as unfair competition.

As if that wasn't enough, Crist's increasing shift to the right on social policy may be canceled out by the documentary film, Outrage, which reports on persistent rumors that Crist is a closeted gay man -- even as he states positions against marriage rights for LGBT people and his support for Florida's ban on adoption by LGBT folks. (Florida's law is the only such adoption ban in the country; some 4,000 adoptable Florida children languish in foster care.) As shown in Outrage, which opened nationwide just days before Crist announced his Senate bid, the allegations of Crist's accusers are likely to rankle not only the right, but stand to alienate voters who may not care whether their governor is gay or straight, but who do care about his veracity and integrity -- or lack thereof.

The film highlights the reporting of Bob Norman of the Broward-Palm Beach New Times, who followed a trail of dinner party conversations between sources and a male member of former Rep. Katherine Harris's staff (you remember her as the woman presiding over the recount of Florida's 2000 presidential vote), to fuel a provocative, if inconclusive, story about Crist's orientation. Norman also followed a deposition given by a friend of Norman said to be involved with Crist. "Charlie very smoothly denied that he knew or remembered knowing either of these people," Norman told filmmaker Kirby Dick. Then, Dick says, the two men named in his report left Florida until after Crist won his election.

The film looks more broadly at the cases of other anti-gay politicians who are believed to be gay themselves, or who have been successfully "outed" by their own behavior (Idaho Sen. Larry Craig, former Virginia Rep. Ed Scrock and others) -- most of them exposed by Mike Rogers of BlogActive, who focuses on senators and members of Congress who oppose LGBT rights.

Of anti-gay politicians who are privately having same-sex affairs, Rogers says to Dick, "They are traitors to their people...They are working against the [very] community they then expect to protect them."

In Outrage, Crist is heard in a radio interview saying that he believes marriage to be "a sacred relationship between a man and a woman, like my mother and father had, and like I had before I got divorced." (He is speaking here of his first marriage, which lasted six months; he married again last year, as his name was floated for the vice presidential slot on the McCain ticket.) Later in the film, Crist is heard telling a newscaster that he has "no second thoughts" on Florida's ban on adoptions by same-sex couples.

So far, the accusations seem not to have affected Crist's campaign. As governor, he still enjoys a 64 percent approval rating (Quinnipiac), is all but certain to survive a primary challenge by Rubio, and is a strong contender against Democrat Kendrick Meek, the congressman poised to challenge him in the general Senate election. But once ensconced on Capitol Hill, Crist will doubtless have Rogers on his trail, a perilous fate for any politician who votes against LGBT rights.

Charlie Crist will likely win a Senate seat for the Republican party, but the cost of his win to the GOP may be far greater than the millions that party leaders will pour into making it happen. For a party focused for so long on appeasing the most vituperative voices of its vaunted base, the ascendance of Charlie Crist represents a point of departure from which the GOP will not easily return.

Meltdown 101: Which jobs reports tell full story?

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Christopher Leonard
May 21, 2009 - AP

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One week, a federal report says the number of people filing new claims for unemployment insurance has unexpectedly dropped, pointing to a slowdown in layoffs. Good news, right? Maybe not.

Within weeks, another government report says the unemployment rate has climbed. Bad news? Not so fast: Soon a privately issued report says the labor market appears to be strengthening, news that reassures investors and sends stocks higher.

Confused yet? Don't worry — so are some of the nation's leading economists.

Gauging the labor market, and predicting where it might go, has proven to be an exceedingly difficult task during this fast-moving recession. The unemployment rate has spiked much faster than most analysts thought it would over the last year, and along the way numerous reports has given seemingly contradictory messages about the number of Americans out of work.

So which reports should be trusted, and which ones tell the whole story? Is the report on jobless claims released Thursday — which said that new claims dropped slightly to 631,000 — simply going to be contradicted by the next set of numbers? How do agencies even know how many jobs have been slashed?

Here are questions and answers about the main jobs reports that experts consult to read the labor market.

Q: What are the most important reports that experts watch?

A: Two major government reports get the most attention: the weekly jobless claims report filed by the Department of Labor, and the monthly unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. These are complemented by a slew of private reports issued by economic consultants like Moody's Economy.com, or Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

Q: What does the report on weekly jobless claims measure?

A: The report captures the number of people who file their first claim for unemployment insurance after being laid off.

This can be a good measure for how many jobs were cut the week before, but it doesn't capture the whole picture. For whatever reason, not everyone who loses their job ends up filing for unemployment insurance benefits, or at least they may not file right away. Still, the rough number can point to upward or downward trends in the labor market between monthly reports filed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Q: What does the monthly unemployment report measure?

A: The monthly unemployment report is based on a Census Bureau survey of 60,000 U.S. households. The survey asks respondents several questions, including whether they have a job, are looking for a job, or are so discouraged that they have quit looking for work altogether.

The report lays out a whole range of unemployment rates. The most-cited rate only counts people actively looking for work; the latest unemployment report, released on May 8, calculated that rate as 8.9 percent. A much broader unemployment rate — 15.8 percent in the latest report — also includes everyone who has dropped out of the labor force or has been forced into part-time work.

Q: Why do these reports seem to contradict each other sometimes?

A: The main reason is that the jobless claims report only catches one piece of the puzzle — the number of jobs being shed. But sometimes, the unemployment rate can climb even if fewer jobs are cut. That's because the unemployment rate also accounts for the all-important factor of job creation.

Even if employers don't shed any jobs, the unemployment rate can climb if they don't create enough new jobs to absorb all the graduates and immigrants who enter the work force each month.

Q: Why don't I hear more about private-sector jobs reports?

A: Investors pay close attention to these reports, like the ADP National Employment Report, which tend to be released before the government reports and can give stock traders a leg up when betting on economic trends. But academics shy away from them in part because companies don't fully reveal their study methodology. (ADP's report, for one, is based on payroll data from about 400,000 of the company's data service clients.)

Government reports, on the other hand, have been used for decades and their methodology is well known.

Q: So which reports should I pay attention to?

A: You can't go wrong by watching the monthly unemployment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, said Arindrajit Dube, an economist with the Center for Labor Research and Education at the University of California at Berkeley.

The unemployment report is the best gauge of the labor market because it measures people's intentions — such as whether they've given up on the job hunt or decided to return to school — in a way payroll figures or jobless claims cannot.

The one downside of the report is that it only comes out monthly, and gives a good picture of where the labor market was last month rather than where it is this week, Dube said. So he watches the weekly jobless claims report to get a contemporary reading on the job market, rather than waiting a full month for the unemployment report. He will also look at reports like ADP's, but mostly as a complement to government issued data.

"I think the short answer is: I look at all of them because they each give a piece of information," Dube said.

TOON

George W. Bush "Kept Us Safe"?

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Jeffrey Feldman
May 21, 2009 - Huffington Post

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Lately, the only thing worse than Dick Cheney's boldfaced lie that the Bush administration policies "kept us safe" is the gaggle of mainstream journalists mindlessly repeating it.

My question for journalists working for CNN, MSNBC, FOX, ABC, CBS, NPR and the like is very simple: Exactly what kind of delusional definition of "kept us safe" is swirling around your cobweb covered newsrooms? That definition must be some kind of crazy, because it accommodates not only the deadliest terrorist attack in U.S. history and the tragic death of thousands in New Orleans, but dozens of other yikes-we-are-so-not-safe moments, all which happened during George W. Bush's Presidency.

For example:

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, thousands of soldiers died in Iraq--a war we now know without question to have been waged as part of an ideological program, not out of necessity. Those thousands of soldiers each had parents, husbands, wives, brothers, sisters, children, and hometowns dragged through the cruel stop-gap policies imposed on service men and women by George W. Bush.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, tens of thousands of U.S. soldiers were injured, only to return to the squalid conditions and cruel indifference of a veterans' care medical system that fell through the cracks of America's for-profit healthcare racket. The tragedy of our injured soldiers came to light during George W. Bush's Presidency.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, the number of Americans living in abject fear for lack of health insurance reached the tens of millions. As a result of this crisis of fear, a private medical relief agency initially set up to fly doctors to remote jungles in South America began flying relief into poor American communities. This happened during George W. Bush's Presidency.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, the NSA spied on the private citizens, thanks to the willing participation of major American telecom companies, a major violation of the most fundamental Constitutional rights Americans thought protected them from KGB-style domestic surveillance.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, the citizens of nearly all American foreign allies began to view the United States as a hostile threat to world peace, safety, and security as a result of (1) the preemptive invasion policies of Dick Cheney and (2) the torture-of-prisoners policies of Dick Cheney.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, job security for working communities dropped, underemployment reached historic highs, and earned wages for worker output stagnated.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, Bernard Madoff was arrested for running the largest financial Ponzi scheme in history, defrauding private citizens, retirement funds, and not-for-profit organizations out of billions of dollars.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, the United States impeded global cooperation to lower carbon emissions levels, thereby heightening a general fear over the destructive potential of global warming.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, the United States economy tipped into the deepest economic crisis since the 1920s, hastening experts to describe the housing and financial market meltdown as a potential global economic 'depression.'

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, pet food produced in China was discovered as the cause of deaths for American dogs and cats contaminated by toxic melamine, resulting in a nationwide panic.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, ecoli contamination killed multiple people who had ate spinach, tomatoes, and peppers.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, elderly Americans panicked over shortages of flu vaccines.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, the Republican Party ran political commercials claiming that voting for Democratic Party candidates would lead directly to the death and destruction of small town America by terrorists with nuclear bombs.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, fear and hatred of homosexuality reached a fever pitch in American politics.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, the Republican Party ran election campaigns designed to scare Jewish voters into thinking that the election of Democrats would result in another Holocaust.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, civilian planes were hijacked and flown into two of the tallest buildings in the world--the event was broadcast on live television--and when the President was told these events were happening by one of his closest aides, he sat there stone faced and did nothing, while his vice President--Dick Cheney--vanished into an "undisclosed location."

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, the country was swept up in fear that terrorists were attacking ordinary citizens by sending the anthrax virus in the form of white powder through the United States Postal system.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, invasive strip searches coupled with racial profiling were introduced to the act of getting onto an airplane.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, a man who looked mentally ill was able to get past airport security, get on a plane, and then light a fuse connected to explosives in his shoes.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, a color-coded system was created to tell Americans via broadcast television that the threat of a terrorist attack was high at all times.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, the Republican Party launched a national campaign to convince the public that the Democratic nominee for president was a covert adherent to radical Islam with covert ties to domestic and foreign terrorists.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency--a time lauded and celebrated by the National Rifle Association, who claimed to have "their man in the Oval office"--the largest gun massacre on a university campus occurred at Virginia Tech, resulting in the violent deaths of 5 faculty members and 27 students.

* During George W. Bush's Presidency, the CIA at the bequest of Dick Cheney tortured prisoners using techniques in direct violation of U.S. and international law, dramatically increasing the likelihood that captured U.S. prisoners in the future will also be subject to torture.

And that is just to name a few, but you get the point. So, remind me again: How did George W. Bush's policies keep us safe? Call me crazy, but I just do not see it.

To understand what it means for a President to keep us safe, my advice is to ignore Dick Cheney altogether and listen directly to former President Franklin Roosevelt.

In 1941 FDR gave a speech about "Four Freedoms" which spoke directly to the issue of security for Americans and the rest of the world:

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In the future days, which we seek to make secure, we look forward to a world founded upon four essential human freedoms.
The first is freedom of speech and expression--everywhere in the world.

The second is freedom of every person to worship God in his own way--everywhere in the world.

The third is freedom from want--which, translated into universal terms, means economic understandings which will secure to every nation a healthy peacetime life for its inhabitants--everywhere in the world.

The fourth is freedom from fear--which, translated into world terms, means a world-wide reduction of armaments to such a point and in such a thorough fashion that no nation will be in a position to commit an act of physical aggression against any neighbor--anywhere in the world.

That is no vision of a distant millennium. It is a definite basis for a kind of world attainable in our own time and generation. That kind of world is the very antithesis of the so-called new order of tyranny which the dictators seek to create with the crash of a bomb.

-- Franklin D. Roosevelt, excerpted from the State of the Union Address to the Congress, January 6, 1941

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To be fair, George W. Bush did some good work relative to Roosevelt's list of "Four Freedoms," in particular his dedication of a considerable funds to help fight AIDS in African nations. And yet, in his domestic and foreign policies--most of them designed and pushed by Dick Cheney--George W. Bush shrouded American life in a politics of fear. He did not make us more safe. Using the media and the military, George W. Bush made us more afraid, more anxious, and more concerned for our future. Even worse: he sought to profit politically from the fear he created.

If there is ever ranking of Presidents who made us feel the most safe, I will bet you a gas mask and a roll of duct tape that George W. Bush ends up in last place.

So the next time Dick Cheney repeats his big, fat, stinking lie that George W. Bush "kept us safe," I hope journalists have the wherewithal and the basic decency to laugh out loud.

The rest of us are already laughing.

Scathing watchdog report blasts Securities and Exchange Commission oversight

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Darren Barbee
May 15, 2009 - Star-Telegram (Dallas-Ft. Worth)

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The Securities and Exchange Commission abandons investigations for lack of resources, allows corporate wrongdoers to skip fines and drops cases because of a bureaucratic culture of risk aversion, according to a recent federal report.

The list goes on: A lack of support staff is so severe it forces SEC attorneys to send confidential documents to nonsecure copy shops. One attorney spent a day putting together document boxes instead of pursuing cases, according to the scathing report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office.

The report raises questions about how well the SEC can do its job protecting investors with such glaring deficiencies.

The number of SEC enforcement attorneys declined 11.5 percent from 2004 to 2008 while cases were closed prematurely or not investigated at all, the report says. Although a wide range of cases is pursued, "one attorney told us of closing several cases that were promising but which could not be pursued for lack of resources," according to the report.

Other times, lack of specialized experts, such as accountants and those knowledgeable about trading, weren't available, causing delays. Over four years, penalties and disgorgements declined by 84 percent — to $256 million in fiscal 2008, compared with $1.59 billion in 2005.

The report also details problems with the commission's lack of consensus in punishing corporate misconduct.

"Officials acknowledged that there could be flagrant misconduct, but no penalty, if corporate benefit [from the misconduct] cannot be identified through economic analysis," the report states.

According to many investigative attorneys, commission penalty policies have contributed to an adversarial relationship between the enforcement division and the commission. In one case, an enforcement attorney told the GAO that a company offered to pay $1 million to settle a case, but the attorney recommended no penalty because "they did not believe the commission would approve the company offer."

In response to the report, SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro wrote that she agreed with the findings and recommendations and that she has asked the new director of the enforcement division to conduct a top-to-bottom review of processes and culture.

Schapiro hired a longtime federal prosecutor to head the division. He and Schapiro will work on management reforms, including harnessing technology, improving risk assessment, and improving training and supervision for law enforcement personnel "so that we can maximize our resources to combat fraud and wrongdoing in our markets."

Andrew Stoltmann, a Chicago securities attorney, said the report reveals nothing new about the troubled agency.

"The SEC has been an impotent, toothless tiger pretty much since its creation in the 1930s," he said. "The SEC tends to be more concerned about banging the drum and getting publicity as opposed to stopping stock crooks like Bernie Madoff."

Toon

Republican Disaster -- The Evangelical/Zionist Anatomy of Meltdown

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Frank Schaeffer
May 19, 2009 - Huffington Post

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I was a Republican insider. For instance, the late Jack Kemp was a friend who I often advised on "connecting" with the Religious Right, until I left the Republican Party and the evangelical subculture and slammed the door behind me. During my last call with Jack he hung up on me. (I was backing McCain in 2000 and he was for W.) I want you to understand this context of my "insider's" comments here because they are going to strike you as shocking. So please let me recap some personal history.

My parents and I were the guests of the Reagans, Fords and Bush's in the White House and/or in other private meetings. Jack Kemp was so good a friend that he once interrupted a speech at a fund-raising banquet in Washington that I'd walked into late and walked from the podium to the back of the hall shook my hand introduced me to the assembled Republican leaders, then walked back to the podium and continued his speech. He did this because -- in those days -- I was an important link to the (then) powerful evangelical movement.

I was often in Jack's house with Jack and his wife Joanne who, at that time, was conducting a weekly Bible study group with other congressional wives called the "Schaeffer group," based on my father's books. In those days -- the 1970s and early 80s -- as both a staunch Republican and pro-life leader and the son of the famous evangelist, I was right in the middle of the Republican machine.

Talk about a self-fulfilling prophecy of doom -- in the 1970s my family was an integral part of bringing the Republican Party under the sway of the emerging Religious Right, particularly because of our support of the antiabortion movement. It was my father who talked Jerry Falwell into "taking a stand" on the "moral issues" of the day, which then morphed into the Moral Majority. Back in the 70s and early 80s Dad and I both appeared on the 700 Club many times, I preached from Jerry Falwell's pulpit and was the keynote speaker at the Religious Broadcasters and Christian Booksellers Association annual events several years running.

There came a day in 1985 (my dad had died in 1984) that I began to take another look at my commitment to the both the far right of Republican Party and the Religious Right. I came to realize that I was in bed with a group of people who were profoundly anti-American. They were professional haters. They wrapped themselves in the flag and "loved America," but it was an America in their imaginations only and cast in their image: white, middle-class, straight, born-again, homophobic and tinged with racism, not to mention misogyny.

The America most Americans lived in; diverse, open, tolerant and multi-ethnic was the America that the right would hardly even acknowledge. They "loved" an America that didn't exist, and hated the real country we live in. (I go into this in detail in two books; Crazy for God: How I Grew Up as One of the Elect, Helped Found the Religious Right, and Lived to Take All -- or Almost All -- of It Back and also in my forthcoming Patience With God: Faith For People Who Don't Like Religion -- Or Atheism where I lay out an alternative to some very bad choices between the extremes.)

So what went wrong with the Republican Party? Believe me, it's all about religion!

Two religions (in the broadest sense of the term) have destroyed the Republican Party: evangelical Christianity and Christian/Jewish Zionism. Evangelical Christianity created the Religious Right which forever linked the Republican Party to the antiabortion, anti-sex education, anti-evolution and anti-gay crusades. And both Christian and Jewish Zionism linked the Republican Party to what became the neoconservative movement with its roots in such publications as Commentary magazine and their shrill Israel-can-do-no-wrong anti-Arab agenda. (I knew the late editor of Commentary Norman Podhoretz quite well, and we met several times to build alliances between evangelicals and the far American Zionist far right. When it came to Arabs, I believe he was a real racist.)

I would not call Zionism per se a religion, but I'm talking about secular goals pursued with religious fervor. I would call Zionism, American-style a politicized version of a religion. I also argue that the neo-con side got traction when religious Jews became Zionists and when religious Christians (evangelicals) hopped aboard to hasten the "Rapture." And I'd like to point out that American Zionists ally themselves with the Israeli hardliners, but that opinion in Israel is much more diverse and often tolerant than that, as is opinion among Jewish Americans, who do not by and large accept the AIPAC point of view uncritically.

The result of the Republican Party being taken over by these religious groups was that we got George W. Bush. His idea of governance was a hands-off, all-government-is-bad-government neglect, combined with an unnecessary war in Iraq inspired by a form of Zionism that sees all Arabs as a threat, Islam as evil, America as an exceptional place duty-bound "by God" to keep the world safe for evangelical Christian "values," on the one hand, and militant Christian and Jewish Zionism on the other. It is a poisonous blend. (It's not just Zionism, or a form of Zionism, that makes Americans hate Arabs. Anti-Arab, anti-Muslim images in America go way back and some right wing evangelicals and Jews merely tap into that racism.)

Evangelical/Christian Zionism has been bad for the State of Israel too. It has helped put that country into a permanent defensive crouch in which there is now perhaps no way out from destruction that comes to all people who see everyone else (from the EU to the UN to the Arabs and Iran) as a threat. The building of the illegal West Bank settlements and turning the Gaza Strip into what amounts to a concentration camp, combined with demographic reality will doom the State of Israel if a two state peace agreement is not reached and reached fast. But Christian Zionists have done all they can to undermine peace in the name of fulfilling "biblical prophecy" as have the far right of the Jewish Zionists, people like my old friend Norman Podhoretz.

With "friends" like the Christian Zionists -- exemplified by the Reverend John Hagee and many others who "support" Israel while eagerly waiting for the "return of Christ" and the destruction of all "unbelieving Jews" -- Israel needs no enemies. Given that the hard-line American Christian Zionists encouraged the Republican Party to become the party of permanent war to keep the State of Israel "safe" they have actually helped set the stage for its destruction. And therefore the Republicans also opened the door to our national economic ruin as well. The two are linked; eternal war and ruin, because our permanent wars (thinly veiled excuses to "keep Israel safe") are never paid for by increased taxes or a draft. (Disclosure: my son served in the Marines and was deployed.)

But attitudes are changing: The results of a new Zogby poll are interesting. They suggest that Obama would have strong support for a US diplomatic effort to forge an Israel-Palestine deal, even if it means tough pressure on Israel. According to the poll, when asked if the United States should "get tough" with Israel in order to back up its call for an end to settlement construction in the occupied West Bank, fully 50 percent of Americans said yes, with just 19 percent saying "do nothing," and 32 percent not sure.

Asked whether the interests of Israel and the US are identical, only 28 percent of Obama voters agreed, while 59 percent disagreed. Among McCain voters, it was the reverse: 78 percent of McCain voters said US and Israel interests were identical (!) and 15 percent said they are not.

So what did the Republicans become? They are the party of unnecessary wars both actual and cultural and the party of the rich -- those who never serve in the military, just put up flags to "support the troops." The actual war in Iraq was (as everyone knew with a wink and a nod, but few dared say) really about our commitment to Christian and Jewish Zionism as it was "understood" by the born-again fool Bush. The culture war is also an unnecessary and unmitigated war that pitted the "real America" (in other words white mostly uneducated, lower-middle-class evangelical/Catholic working Americans) against everyone else.

If you're not a gay-hating, "pro-life," born-again evangelical and/or an ardent Israel-can-do-no-wrong-all-Arabs-are-evil-Jesus-is-coming-back-soon evangelical on the one hand or a neoconservative I-never-met-a-war-I-didn't-like "intellectual" on the other hand, these days you're probably not a Republican. Throw in a college degree or the habit of getting information from any source other than right wing blogs, radio "personalities" like Rush Limbaugh or "authors" like Ann Coulter and you won't be voting Republican again in this lifetime.

What's caused the Republican Party's real meltdown? It's that it has ceased to exist as a political party and is instead a dwindling weirdly eclectic collection of uneducated rubes led by a few fearful angry far right thinkers who talk in media sound bites geared to the types of people who watch Fox News. Jack Kemp was not part of this horrible little "party." He was a smart compassionate man. There used to be more Republicans like Kemp. Today the Republican core constituency is the national village idiot.

With the election of President Obama America has turned the page on the village idiots. We now have a president who is a religious believer himself, who supports Israel (as I do, by the way), but who well understands -- and articulates beautifully as he just did at Notre Dame talking about abortion -- the fact that authentic faith should be a unifying force instead of a divisive one. That's bad news for religious nuts, be they Christians or Jews. That's good news for America and the world, and maybe for our overstretched military too.

The choice for America has always been between inclusive pluralism and exclusion. The kind of religion and Evangelical/Zionist/neoconservative cabal used to take over the interests of the Republican Party is just too small for this big diverse, tolerant and open country of ours. So the Republicans have a choice: become an American political party again serving American interests or continue to serve the narrowly defined religious interests of two angry and fearful Jewish/Evangelical minorities who are themselves bastardized offshoots of their Christian and Jewish traditions.

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Frank Schaeffer is a writer. He is author of Crazy for God: How I Grew Up as One of the Elect, Helped Found the Religious Right, and Lived to Take All (or Almost All) of It Back and also author of the forthcoming Patience With God: Faith For People Who Don't Like Religion Or Atheism

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Obama Expands the American Warfare State

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Sherwood Ross
May 20, 2009 - Smirking Chimp

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Although the U.S. is not in imminent danger of attack from any country, President Obama's first budget further expands the Pentagon's already dominant global operations.

Not even the prospect of a $3.1 trillion combined budget deficit for this year and next deters him. Let them chop the budget for black colleges and police officer death benefits, the Pentagon and its contractors continue to feast at the champagne-and-caviar table.

It's not as though for eight years the Bush Pentagon hadn't nearly outspent the rest of the world combined on designing deadlier weapons and employing them in illegal wars.

Obama's new $664 billion Pentagon budget is $21 billion higher (four percent) than the final Bush budget. It includes $65 billion for Afghanistan and $61 billion for Iraq. Why?

Well, here's what Defense Secy. Robert Gates told the Naval War College April 17th: "The U.S. must not take its current dominance for granted...its battle fleet, by one estimate, is still larger than the next 13 navies combined---and 11 of those 13 navies are U.S. allies or partners."

(Get that? "Larger than the next 13 navies combined." What's more, nearly every world power is our buddy. So where's the urgent need to spend billions on expansion? And notice his use of the word "dominance.")

Gates went on to boast, "In terms of capabilities, the over-match is even greater. No country in the rest of the world has anything close to the reach and firepower to match a carrier strike group. And the U.S. has and will maintain 11 at least until 2040."

Gates seeks an incredible 2,400 new Joint Strike Fighter planes when the U.S. already is undisputed master of the skies. Think of that: 2,400 warplanes in the absence of an enemy!

At 100 million bucks a pop, that air armada will cost taxpayers over $240 billion.

As Sheldon Filger wrote in the May 16 Huffington Post of the Pentagon's fiscal 2009 outlay: "This stratospheric expendure is equivalent to the combined totals for the next 25 largest military budgets on the planet."

The Pentagon claims it needs to be able to fight two wars at once. However, if it did not go around starting wars it would be hard-pressed to find one. From what quarter does Gates expect an attack? Iran, with a puny military budget 1/100th our expenditure? Recall the last successful strike on U.S. soil was achieved not by a great army wielding sophisticated weapons but by a handful of terrorists with box cutters who hijacked airliners and used our own jet fuel for explosives. Yet the Pentagon expands as if gearing up to fight WWII.

"President Obama's budget continues the decade-long uptick in Pentagon spending, which has grown by approximately 40% since 2000," observes military policy analyst Travis Sloan of the Center For Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.

He notes the Obama budget "appears surprisingly large at first glance, especially in this economic climate." Yet he sees reason for optimism as he believes Obama "will institute critical foreign and defense reforms that will make us safer and spend our money more wisely." That's his view.

Obama's Pentagon budget, however, is certainly not going to make the people of Afghanistan safer. His buildup there comes as Afghan President Hamid Karzai pleads in the strongest terms "for the U.S. to halt air strikes in his country, following attacks...that Afghan officials said killed 147 people," Reuters reported. "We demand an end to these operations...an end to air strikes," Karzai told CNN. (Demand? Puppets don't pull strings.)

Defense Secretary Gates informed West Point cadets April 21st that Afghanistan is about "striking back at the staging ground of the perpetrators of the September 11th attack," claiming "Afghanistan is widely viewed as a war of necessity."

In fact, USA Today reported just a month earlier that public support for that conflict "has ebbed to a new low," according to a Gallup Poll. Americans who regard the attack on Afghanistan as "a mistake" had increased from 9% in 2001 to 42%, a sea change Gates conveniently chooses not to credit.

Gallup also discovered a shift in public opinion from March, 2007, when it asked if the U.S. was spending too much or too little on defense. Forty-three per cent responded "too much" compared with 20 percent who replied "too little." A decade earlier most Americans didn't think the Pentagon was on a spending binge with their taxes.

It's ironic that to prosecute what is now President Obama's war, the Pentagon is inflicting on Afghan civilians the same cruel deaths terrorists visited on New York City. Human Rights Watch dubbed "inadequate" U.S. military measures to safeguard them.

A like situation afflicts Pakistan, as the U.S.-made Afghan war spills over its borders. According to AP, "Using unmanned aircraft, American forces have carried out dozens of missile attacks in northwestern Pakistan over the last year. U.S. officials rarely confirm the attacks, but say they have killed a string of al-Qaida commanders. Pakistan's government has publicly protested the tactic, arguing that it kills too many civilians and undermines its efforts to turn tribal leaders away from hard-liners." The UN says 1.5 million Pakistanis have fled their homes, a repeat of the Afghan exodus.

America's Afghan war "is not self defense," writes international law authority Francis Boyle in his new book, "Tackling America's Toughest Questions"(Clarity Press). "Let's be honest. We all know it. At best this is reprisal, retaliation, vengeance, catharsis...(it) constitutes armed aggression. It is illegal. There is no authority for this. It is creating a humanitarian catastrophe for the people of Afghanistan."

Boyle recalls that then Secretary of State Colin Powell promised to produce a "white paper" documenting their case against Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda but never did, and that Bush failed to get a UN resolution authorizing military force in Afghanistan.

The Pentagon's aim, he says, is to "direct military control of 50 percent of the world's oil supply" in the Persian Gulf region, which the Fifth Fleet was "set up in Bahrain to police, dominate, and control."

Can the Department of Defense operations be construed "defensive" when it is operating more than 1,000 bases abroad and those 11 mobile carrier attack fleets? According to author Hugh Gusterson, writing in The Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists of March 10th: "These thousand bases constitute 95 percent of all the military bases any country in the world maintains on any other country's territory. In other words, the United States is to military bases as Heinz is to ketchup." (If only the Pentagon spilled just that!)

Few realize the Pentagon's collection of bases makes it the world's biggest landlord, about 30-million acres. Excluding Afghanistan and Iraq, USA spends $102 billion a year just to run its overseas bases, according to Miriam Pemberton of the Institute for Policy Studies.

The Pentagon justifies its appetite for, say, 227 bases in Germany in terms of making the U.S. more secure. In fact, though, "Such forward basing of forces," writes James Carroll in House of War(Houghton Mifflin), "was designed to control, by means of 'regime change' and 'prevention,' emerging political trends around the globe, with the unabashed goal of guaranteeing U.S. dominance everywhere." Indications are the American war machine has triumphed over its closest adversary: the State Department. As Reuters columnist Bernd Debusmann wrote May 14th, "The U.S. armed forces, the world's most powerful, outnumber the country's diplomatic service and its major aid agency by a ratio of more than 180:1, vastly higher than in other Western democracies. Military giant, diplomatic dwarf?"

Debusmann goes on to say, "In terms of money, the U.S. military towers just as tall. Roughly half of all military spending in the world is American. Even potential adversaries in a conventional war spend puny sums in comparison...China's defense budget is $70 billion, Russia's around $50 billion."

The picture emerging is ugly. No "victory" in its spreading wars in Afghanistan, Pakistan or Iraq ever will begin to compensate for the vast numbers of Middle Eastern folk needlessly maimed, killed, displaced, and pauperized by U.S. military aggression. "Aggression" is the only word for it and the Middle East's oil supply is the only reason for it. The Pentagon is on its way to tighten its control of the world---with the help of our newest imperial president's enabling budget. The American Warfare State marches on!

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Sherwood Ross is an American reporter who has worked for major American newspapers and magazines as well as international wire services.

Our Loss Is BlackRock's Gain

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Robert Scheer
May 20, 2009 - TruthDig

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How much do you know about the BlackRock hedge fund? Better bone up fast, now that the folks at BlackRock are calling the shots in the government's trillion-dollar bailout program. As both The New York Times and The Wall Street journal reported on Tuesday, BlackRock execs are now directing key elements of the government program at a time when they stand to reap great profits from the fallout of a problem they helped create.

The U.S. picked BlackRock to manage the assets once controlled by AIG and Bear Stearns and to analyze the assets of Freddie Mac and Morgan Stanley. And as if that were not enough on its plate, the Treasury Department has just selected BlackRock to be one of the few firms trusted with using U.S. taxpayer dollars to buy toxic assets from the banks and then resell them in a process that presents enormous conflicts of interest with other BlackRock operations.

Bank of America, with a 47% ownership position in BlackRock, is also the owner of what was once Countrywide Financial, which led the pack in selling bad mortgages. The disposition of those failed properties under BlackRock's tutelage will have much to do with BofA's future profitability. As if that were not enough financial incest, the former president and other top executives of Countrywide now run a company created by BlackRock, which is profiting mightily by snapping up the sort of distressed loans that they originally had marketed.

Confused? You're supposed to be. That's the point of a successful hedge fund, a totally unregulated activity in which very rich people pool their money in order to more effectively rip off the rest of us. And BlackRock is at the top of that game, managing $1.3 trillion in assets. But in this round the stakes are far higher because BlackRock, which did a great deal to cause the economic meltdown, has now been put in charge of the government recovery effort.

But don't take my word for it; check out the accounts of BlackRock's leading role in managing the bailout in The New York Times and Wall Street Journal on Tuesday.

The New York Times: "Can a company that is being paid to price and sell troubled assets for the government buy the same kinds of assets for private clients without showing preference? And should the government seek counsel from a company whose clients stand to make or lose billions if those policies are enacted?"

The Wall Street Journal: "BlackRock helped shape the government's toxic-asset plan, which critics have said helps vulture investors buy assets on the cheap while exposing taxpayers to the bulk of losses if the investments sour."

Leading the pack of vulture capitalists profiting from the misery they inspired is the Private National Acceptance Co. (PennyMac), which BlackRock bankrolled. Stanford L. Kurland, chairman and CEO of PennyMac, is the former president of Countrywide Financial. A New York Times story in March headlined "Ex-Leaders of Countrywide Profit From Bad Loans" noted that Kurland's new outfit was profiting from the misery it had helped cause: "After all, the banking behemoth (Countrywide) made risky loans to tens of thousands of Americans, helping set off a chain of events that has the economy staggering."

Countrywide, under Kurland's leadership, specialized in those low "teaser" interest rates that caused people to lose their homes when rates suddenly ballooned. As the Times observed, "Countrywide has become synonymous with the excesses that led to the housing bubble." Now Kurland's new company specializes in buying back those forfeited and at-risk properties for pennies on the dollar and making money off new loans and sales.

"It is sort of like the arsonist who sets fire to the house and then buys up the charred remains and sells it," Margot Saunders, a lawyer with the National Consumer Law Center, told the Times.

"Kurland is seeking to capitalize on a situation that was a product of his own creation," noted Blair A. Nicholas, a lawyer representing Arkansas teachers suing Kurland and his fellow Countrywide executives. "It is tragic and ironic. ... But then again, greed is a growth industry."

And once again the greediest will make out like bandits, with only a few of them ever being held accountable. Kurland sold $200 million in Countrywide stock shortly before the meltdown and, in any case, the spectacular failure of his banking experience only made him all that more employable.

Quoting federal banking officials, the Times reported, "They said it was important to do business with experienced mortgage operators like Mr. Kurland, who know how to creatively renegotiate delinquent loans." Has our president never heard of recidivism?

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Robert Scheer is the editor of Truthdig.

US Army Paid Bonuses to KBR Despite Questions

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Thomas Ferraro
May 20, 2009 - Reuters

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The U.S. Army paid "tens of millions of dollars in bonuses" to KBR Inc, its biggest contractor in Iraq, even after it concluded the firm's electrical work had put U.S. soldiers at risk, according to a source close to a U.S. congressional investigation.

The Senate Democratic Policy Committee plans to hold a hearing on Wednesday to examine KBR's operations in Iraq, and question why the Army rewarded the Houston-based company.

The panel says KBR has been linked to at least two, and as many as five, electrocution deaths of U.S. soldiers and contractors in Iraq due to "shoddy work."

Investigators believe hundreds of other soldiers may have received electrical shocks, the source added. The Army is investigating.

The company denies responsibility for any of the electrocutions, saying it is proud of its work and that its employees make great sacrifices to get the job done.

KBR was part of Halliburton Co until two years ago. Former Vice President Dick Cheney served as Halliburton's chief executive from 1995 to 2000, when he became George Bush's running mate.

During the Bush administration, some critics claimed Cheney's deferred compensation from the company represented a conflict of interest and questioned Halliburton's winning of lucrative government contracts in Iraq.

Military reports have criticized KBR's work in Iraq in recent years. Yet afterward, the company received "tens of millions of dollars in bonuses," said the source, who declined to be identified.

"We want to know why," the source said.

The military was invited to send a witness to testify at Wednesday's hearing, but the committee agreed to let it submit a written statement instead, the source said. Witnesses who are expected to attend include a former KBR electrician.

On Tuesday, the Army had no immediate comment when asked about the bonuses.

THREAT OF FIRE

A September 30, 2008, letter to KBR from an officer in the Defense Department's Defense Contract Management Agency had harsh words for the company.

"We cannot overemphasize the significance of the lack of sustained electrical support services being provided by KBR in Iraq to maintain the minimum life, health and safety standards in support of our warfighters," wrote Captain David Graff, an agency commander.

A February 2007 report by the agency also raised concerns about KBR and its subcontractors in Iraq -- while acknowledging the difficulty of working in a war environment.

"Primary safety threat, theater wide, is fire due to the inferior 220 electrical fixtures found throughout Iraq," it said. "Improper installation, substandard equipment purchases (such as light fixtures) and heavy usage appears to be the three primary causes of these fires."

U.S. lawmakers have raised concerns about the U.S. military's increased use of private contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan and have said KBR and other companies should be held accountable.

KBR spokeswoman Heather Browne said, "KBR remains proud of the work it performs in Iraq."

"We remain committed to engaging in a transparent and more importantly, a fact-based dialogue on this issue while pledging continued full cooperation and support to the military."

The Senate Democratic Policy Committee is the research arm of the Senate Democratic leadership and often conducts investigations of its own.

What Was I Fighting For?

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Rick Reyes
May 18, 2009 - The Nation

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Note The following commentary is based on an interview by Z.P. Heller, editorial director of Brave New Films.

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I was on liberty in Australia, dancing at a club I can't remember sometime around midnight, when it happened. The music shut off and an announcement came on: "America is under attack. Head back to your ships." This was the worst--the impossible. This was September 11, 2001.

I witnessed firsthand the ineffectiveness of US military strategy in Afghanistan. We need a more clearly defined mission, an exit strategy and a commitment to diplomacy rather than a military solution.
..Back at my ship, ambulance sirens blared. Hundreds of Marines stood on deck, anxiously awaiting word. Someone said the Pentagon had been attacked. My platoon sergeant stood up and delivered a fiery speech filled with "No one [expletive] with America!" and "We're going to kick some ass!" Later that night, the same sergeant turned to me asked me if I was ready.

Without giving it a second thought, I replied, "This is what I joined for."

Flash forward to a few weeks ago, as I recalled those words testifying before Senator John Kerry and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. I sat where a young Kerry was once seated as he awoke the nation to the grim realities of war in Vietnam. I explained to the committee that I always desired to serve my country, ensure basic freedoms and fight for justice and the American way. This had been my dream since childhood, a way to honor my Mexican immigrant parents who worked tirelessly to give my family a better life, a way out of an East Los Angeles neighborhood plagued by gang violence. Yet what I witnessed and experienced during a seven-month deployment in Afghanistan followed by another in Iraq has forever shattered this once noble ambition.

As an infantry rifleman in the Marines Corps, I saw so much of these wars through nightly patrols. We were trained to approach a point of interest on foot, coordinating with translators whose sole vested interest in supplying us intelligence was to earn money and aid. We would gather information that often proved faulty, and question locals to the point we felt comfortable conducting a raid. After receiving an order, we would ransack homes, destroying windows and doors, chairs and tables, families and lives--detaining and arresting anyone who seemed suspicious. The problem, of course, was that it was impossible to distinguish militant Taliban members or Al Qaeda from innocent civilians. Everyone became a suspect.

In one instance, my squad leader gave me orders to pursue possible terrorists leaving the scene in which we had established a perimeter. My four-man fire team and I followed these suspects undetected for about 100 yards along an exposed ravine. When we were four feet from them, I drew my M-16 and pointed it directly at their faces, yelling, "Get down on the ground!" We beat them in search of nonexistent weapons, breaking limbs in the process. Later that day, I learned these men were innocent. Another time, my squad and I detained, beat and nearly killed a man, only to realize he was merely trying to deliver milk to his children. These raids compelled me to tell Congress we have been chasing ghosts in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Amazingly, these patrols were all the same, whether I was in the desolate desert near Camp Rhino--the US-led coalition's first strategic foothold in Afghanistan--or stationed outside Basra in Iraq. The terrain was different, but what remained the same was the manner in which we carried out missions, the unconscionable acts of violence and collateral damage that followed, and the ever-present paranoia that every Muslim could be a terrorist. These raids even ended the same way. We would compensate the family whose home we had invaded, offering to fix or pay for broken furniture before moving on to the next village, where kids would throw rocks at us and give us the finger. To my knowledge, I never detained or arrested anyone guilty of a crime.

I witnessed firsthand the ineffectiveness of US military strategy in Afghanistan and Iraq. However, I didn't fully grasp the extent of these failed foreign policies or our government's deception until I returned home from war. Realizing there never were weapons of mass destruction, and that we would have difficulty tracking terrorists even if we had committed all the troops in our military, I felt as though my patriotism had been exploited for political gain. A select few were profiting from these wars, while the majority of Americans shouldered the enormous tax burden.

To me, the lesson learned in Afghanistan and Iraq was that the US flexed way too much muscle. We have ships, planes, helicopters, tanks, hovercrafts, trucks, Humvees--everything imaginable. But how effective is such military might against extremists who blend in with innocent civilians and fight guerrilla warfare? Moreover, how effective can it be when we leave civilians little alternative but to support extremists?

That is why the proposed $94.2 billion supplemental war-funding bill will be a complete waste of taxpayer dollars, as we continue to pursue a military solution for a political problem. Similarly, the 21,000 additional more troops will be a "drop in the bucket" in Afghanistan, as my esteemed colleague Andrew Bacevich has said. Bacevich, a retired colonel who served in Vietnam and lost a son in Iraq, sat next to me at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing. He urged Congress to question the effectiveness and immense cost of fighting the "Long War" in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Congress must hear more voices like ours before escalating the war in Afghanistan any further. More veterans need to speak out, and as a society we must get beyond the public perception that veterans are a product of war. We are not a product. We took an oath to serve and protect, to make sacrifices for the greater good. It's an oath everyone ought to honor, and not just by thanking us for our service. In my mind, we are not seeing more veterans speak out because there is a sense that if they do, they will be letting go of something they truly believe in; they will be going back on their oath and their sacrifices will have been in vain. That is not the case.

A number of veterans and I are forming a group called Vets for Rethinking Afghanistan. We will voice our dissent in Congress, testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and meet with any Representatives willing to listen. We will raise awareness about how our military occupations in Afghanistan and Iraq have been counterproductive. We will express the dire need for the Obama administration to provide both an exit strategy and a more clearly defined mission and we will explain how dangerous it is for the US to use humanitarian aid as a bargaining chip to advance a flawed military agenda without giving diplomacy a real chance. Please join me in this cause.

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Rick Reyes, a retired corporal in the US Marine Corps, served in Afghanistan in 2001 and in Iraq in 2003. He is a member of Iraq Veterans Against the War and is now a businessman in Los Angeles.

Obama said there’d be days like this

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David Goldman
May 19th, 2009 - Asia Times

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The administration has been wise to manage expectations about economic recovery. Obama said there'd be days like this, in which the universal consensus of economic recovery would be confounded by a 46% decline in multi-family housing starts month on month. The Federal Reserve and Treasury have created a bottom of source at the cost of nearly $10 trillion in actual or contingent liabilities of the federal government, but they cannot change the basic problem: the biggest bulge of prospective retirees in American history has the biggest savings gap of any generation in history. That means a vast shift away from consumption and towards saving over at least a decade. Barring a surge in exports (of what? to whom?) that means reduced economic activity. Bottom-feeding (trading in foreclosed houses on Main Street and in distressed securities on Wall Street) keeps the life functions of the economy going at zombie levels, but that's it.

The signs of life in the credit and asset securitization markets have a great deal to do with cheap federal financing. There's a good summary of what TALF does in this regard in the May 18 Fortune (hat tip to the Daily Bail):

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Imagine if you were not really in the market for a house but the government came along and said that it would finance 94% of a home's purchase price with a mortgage rate of less than 3%. Still not interested? Wait, Uncle Sam has some additional sweeteners: if you do the deal and buy the house for only 6% down, you also get the equivalent of rental income every month to the tune of at least an annualized yield of 10% of the purchase price.

But wait there's still more: if, say, after two years, you decide you don't want the house any longer, you can just walk away from it. No need to pay the balance of the mortgage (it won't affect your credit rating), and you can keep the rental income received to date.

That's essentially the deal that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has offered qualified professional investors who participate in the so-called TALF (Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility). Two months into the program as the first TALF- backed deals hit the market, you can see why the likes of hedge fund Fortress Investment Group are drooling over it. "I'm a big believer in the impact that TALF can and should have," Fortress CEO Wes Edens said on a May 6 investor call, adding that he expects that Fortress will be "a big participant" in the TALF program "three to six months from now."
The first few TALF deals — one for Ford Credit (the financing arm of the automaker), another for American Honda Receivables Corp., a third for the student loan company Sallie Mae and a fourth for motorcycle icon Harley Davidson — shed some light on our tax dollars at work.

"I've had accounts that dropped everything they were doing to take a look at this TALF financing," one Wall Street trader explained. "It was like nothing they had ever seen. It beats any financing that the private sector could ever come up with. I almost want to say it is irresponsible." For instance, Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU, Fortune 500), the large insurer and investment manager, borrowed $786 million from the TALF as of March 31 and put up only $50 million to do so, some 6.4% of the deals.

In case you're not totally conversant with the alphabet soup of financial remedies emanating from the Obama Administration, here's a brief refresher: Geithner and the Federal Reserve announced the launch of the TALF in March. The TALF is a $200 billion (on its way to $1 trillion) non-recourse lending program to private investors as a way to encourage them to buy newly underwritten securities backed by auto loans, credit-card receivables and student loans, among other asset classes. (The TALF program is set to extend, in June, to the issue of new commercial real-estate mortgage-backed securities.)

These securitizations were once upon a time a key component of the so-called "shadow" financing system that helped raise trillions of dollars of capital worldwide. Of course, the securitization and sale of mortgage-backed securities was one of the leading causes of the current financial crisis as the people who took out the underlying mortgages started to default upon them in unexpected numbers. Still, Geithner has determined, correctly, that getting these securities circulating again is crucial to restoring the health of the credit markets. The Treasury designed the program, but it is the Federal Reserve that provides the government's share of the capital. "The increase in the TALF is expected to help stimulate both new issuances and the removal of assets from bank balance sheets," Credit Suisse wrote to its shareholders on May 8.

Investors interested in borrowing from the TALF program have to be approved by the Treasury and then, once approved, have to set up an account with a broker-dealer that is subject to a variety of the usual terms and conditions. The investor then must indicate a desire to buy, say, at least $10 million of one of the dozen or so deals, worth an aggregate of around $25 billion, which have come to market since the TALF program was set up in March. An early test for TALF was a May 5, $1.5 billion car-receivables securitization for American Honda Receivables Corp. and underwritten by JPMorgan Securities (JPM,Fortune 500) and BNP Paribas Securities. Investor demand for the deals so far is said by one trader to be "strong" and the deals are selling well. The real market test, though, of TALF will come when the first deals involving CMBS (Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities) start coming to market in the next few months.

The way the TALF works in practice is this: The amount of equity an investor has to put up, or the "haircut" as the TALF documents call it, depends upon the assets involved, the term of the loan or lease of the underlying asset (say, a car) and the credit quality of the underlying borrower. A loan to buy a three-year security backed by a group of credit-card receivables from high-quality borrowers would require an investor to put up 6% of the capital — a 6% "haircut" — and then can borrow the rest from the TALF through his brokerage account. To buy a two-year high-quality credit-card receivable security, a borrower would put up 5% of the face amount of the securities purchased. Auto receivables require as 12% equity investment for a three-year security. Small business loans require 5% down. Student loans require 10% down for a three-year deal.

An investor interested in a $10 million slice of three-year credit card receivable would put up 6% of the money — $600,000 — and borrow the balance of $9.4 million from the TALF at a rate of three-year LIBOR plus 100 basis points (Attention K-Mart shoppers, that's 2.85% at this moment.) Depending on all sorts of assumptions, the yields on these investments are said to be in the 11% to 15% range, especially attractive since the TALF loans are non-recourse to the borrowers — you can just walk away and lose only your underlying equity investment and the collateral but you are not held responsible for the unpaid portion of the TALF loan itself.

In addition, the TALF loan is not marked-to-market so if the underlying collateral deteriorates in value, the investor is not required to put up more equity. What's more as the car payments or credit-card payments on the underlying security are made, the payments are distributed to the government and the investor on equal footing — that means the investor starts getting paid back at the same time as the government even though the government is the senior secured creditor and even though an investor has put up only a small fraction of the original money. One private equity investor, who would not normally have looked at investing in such a deal but did, called this particular aspect of the TALF "shockingly good."

But who will the TALF deals be shockingly good for — the players on the field or those of us in the bleachers? If what Geithner calls "our lending facility with the Fed" does its job and jumpstarts the credit markets then the extraordinary concessions the government has made to attract private capital may have been worth it.

...

There's no jump starting, just a push, and the push lasts as long as the $200 billion that the government has to push with. It's not a recovery, but a constructed bottom over which risk assets will range trade.

Ex-Bush Henchman Wants to be "CEO of Afghanistan" (Literally)

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Jeremy Scahill
May 19, 2009 - Common Dreams

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This story that is developing with the big oil-Bush buddy Zalmay Khalilzad is amazing in how crude it is. Khalilzad of course was one of Bush's top diplomatic henchmen in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere and an original signer of the Project for a New American Century, whose global conquest agenda was adopted as official US policy under Bush. Well, good ol' Zal apparently wants to be president of Afghanistan, but he missed the May 8 deadline to file. So, instead, he is now cooking up a plan with the US-puppet president, Hamid Karzai, to become the "chief executive officer of Afghanistan." That is not a joke. That is exactly how The New York Times described Khalilzad's desired position:

The position would allow Mr. Khalilzad to serve as "a prime minister, except not prime minister because he wouldn't be responsible to a parliamentary system," a senior Obama administration official said. Taking the unelected position would also allow Mr. Khalilzad to keep his American citizenship.

Administration officials insisted that the United States was not behind the idea of enlisting Mr. Khalilzad to serve in the Afghan government, and they gave no further details on what his duties might be.

A plan that puts Mr. Khalilzad near the top of a Karzai government would provide the Obama administration with a strong conduit to push American interests in Afghanistan…

You cannot make this stuff up.

It was bad enough that the US imported Hamid Karzai who would be ripped to shreds in about 2 seconds if the US military pulled out of Afghanistan. Now, the Obama folks want to actually impose tolerate one of Bush's cronies as a non-elected "CEO" of an occupied country where his job is described in corporate terms so that he can "push American interests."

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Secret memo reveals Bush was given humane, legal alternative to harsh interrogation

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John Byrne
May 18, 2009 - Raw Story

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The Bush administration was given clear and unequivocal advice encouraging a detainee interrogation system that followed humane practices that adhered to US and international law, a previously secret memo reveals.

A detailed memorandum authored by a counselor to former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in 2005 also reveals that the Bush Administration was offered a comprehensive alternative to its use of torture techniques. The author, Rice deputy Philip Zelikow (along with then-acting deputy secretary of defense Gordon England), asserted that the adoption of a clear and humane approach to interrogation would pay dividends for the US in the years to come.

The memo was published Thursday at Secrecy News, a blog written by secrecy expert Steven Aftergood. It can be read here in PDF form.

Zelikow acknowledged an argument frequently promulgated by former Vice President Dick Cheney — that the interrogation of detainees could save thousands of lives. But he argued that humane treatment was the only right course for the United States.

"Some [terrorist suspects] have information that may save lives, perhaps even thousands of lives," Zelikow wrote. "They do not fit readily into any existing system of criminal or military justice. And, while balancing the danger these individuals may present, they must be treated humanely, consistent with our values and the values of the free world."

Zelikow and England argued — conscious of the techniques that the Bush administration had already adopted and in an apparent snipe at then-approved standards endorsing torture — that such a program must "pass muster for years to come under American law and relevant standards of international law," and "give workable clear and unambiguous guidelines for the professional and humane conduct expected from those who will operate the system."

And, they said, whether a prisoner was caught in any number of countries abroad, "the treatment of a prisoner should be built on a foundation of common values and basic standards - a system that is reasonably interoperable."

Zelikow recently found himself in the news after alleging that the White House sought to round up and destroy all copies of another memo he wrote that year, which argued explicitly that the Bush administration's interrogation techniques were illegal. According to Zelikow, the "White House attempted to collect and destroy all copies of my memo." In a recent article, Zelikow said his "supposition at the time" was that the office of Vice President Dick Cheney was behind the push.

In the memo released Thursday, the two Bush officials said they believed that the US should effectively give terrorist detainees the rights enumerated under the Geneva Conventions.

In all capital letters, they wrote: "WE ARE NOT SAYING THAT THESE DETAINEES ARE NECESSARILY ENTITLED TO THIS STATUS. TO BE CLEAR: WE ARE GIVING THEM A TEMPORARY STATUS THEY DO NOT DESERVE. BUT WE ARE NOT DOING THIS FOR THEM. WE ARE DOING IT FOR US."

"This interim approach also is one that civilian courts are more likely to understand," they continued. "This interim approach is also one that Americans and the world are more likely to understand and accept as reasonable."

Both also argued for the temporary holding of detainees as opposed to their long-term imprisonment at Guantanamo Bay. They proposed an alternative system whereby individuals would be questioned when information is most current.

"In every country, individuals are held temporarily, away from public scrutiny, often just after they are apprehended, in order to conduct human but effective questioning and gather information while it is most current," they wrote.

"As part of this interim system, and as the number of detainees goes down," they continued, "the US will no longer need to maintain a detention facility in Guantanamo. That facility will close and we expect to transfer remaining detainees to a facility in the United States."

Perhaps most telling was a line penned midway through the memo — a prognostication that has proven eerily true.

"If the US acts as if it has something to hide," the officials wrote, "Americans and the world will assume that it does."

Jesse Ventura on The View

Jesse Ventura takes on Elizabeth Hasselbeck on The View

Obama's Great Afghanistan Gamble

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Everyone knows 17,000 more troops can't win the war in Afghanistan. So what's the exit strategy?

Robert Dreyfuss
May 19, 2009 - Mother Jones

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If you can't imagine how President Obama intends to win the war in Afghanistan, you're not alone. The challenge is daunting: Along with a handful of war-plagued African states-Somalia, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo-Afghanistan is one of the world's poorest countries. It's been racked by 30 years of war. Millions have fled into Pakistan and Iran; tens of thousands more have been killed since the US-backed jihad in the 1980s. "The reason we don't have moderate leaders in Afghanistan today is because we let the nuts kill them all," Cheryl Benard, Rand Corporation specialist and wife of former US Ambassador to Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad, told me in 2004, during an interview for a book on political Islam. Obama's advisers say that their plan is to surge, then negotiate-that is, beef up the US presence, stabilize the war, and then seek a deal backed by regional diplomacy. But that raises a host of questions, starting with: If negotiations are the
answer, who's at the table?

President Hamid Karzai: His government is, well, mostly nonexistent. "Forty percent of the country is either partly or entirely off-limits to the government and to international aid groups," says Mark Schneider of the International Crisis Group. Karzai has been derided as merely the "mayor of Kabul," but it's worse than that: "He doesn't have much influence with parliament, so you can't even say that he controls the capital," says Marvin Weinbaum, a former State Department intelligence official who advised Obama's campaign. Terrorists strike fortified targets in Kabul, from the Indian Embassy to the Ministry of Justice, with impunity.

Karzai is struggling to regain control. By skillfully appointing governors and mayors, he's built a cadre of officials loyal to the regime. Still, in the provinces, the government's writ is weak. Law enforcement and the courts are virtually absent, leaving the field to criminals and drug traffickers. Corruption poisons everything: Afghanistan is ranked 176 out of 180 countries surveyed by the corruption watchdog group Transparency International; it produces more than nine-tenths of the world's illicit opium; and criminal gangs reach from the most remote districts into Karzai's own family-one of his brothers has been accused of involvement in the heroin trade.

The security forces: The pre-surge force of 13,100 US and 56,420 NATO troops (including 24,900 Americans) has been unable to secure Kabul and its environs, not to mention huge swaths of the south. Some NATO forces do little fighting, and some, like Canada's, are leaving. Afghan public opinion is turning against the coalition, partly because of rising civilian casualties caused by air strikes. Meanwhile the 80,000-strong Afghan National Army can't operate on its own, while the Afghan National Police, also numbering around 80,000, are dysfunctional, corrupt, and infiltrated by Taliban fighters; many are merely militiamen for local warlords.

The Taliban: In the 1990s, they rode to power by mobilizing armies of orphans and refugees brainwashed in Pakistani madrassas; toppled in 2001, they've come roaring back in rural areas where Karzai's feckless governors and crooked cops are viewed with disdain. They use threats, blandishments, and their cultlike ideology to expand their power base, village by village and clan by clan. Yet their hold is not as firm as it might seem. Polls indicate that 9 out of 10 Afghans disapprove of the Taliban. And, notes Seth Jones, an Afghanistan expert at Rand, "Most of the tribal, subtribe, and clan leaders don't particularly care for the central government, and they don't particularly care for the Taliban. They are willing to switch sides." The hardcore Taliban, he estimates, may be as small as just 2,000 to 3,000 fighters. They do, however, have allies-other militant factions, criminal gangs, and, of course, their own brethren beyond Afghanistan's borders. In
Pakistan, the Taliban shura (council) is run by Mullah Mohammad Omar, the one-eyed true believer who headed Afghanistan until 2001. Farther north, Mullah Omar's allies include the Haqqanis, heirs to one of the more violent jihadist factions from the US-sponsored war in the 1980s, and Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, perhaps that war's most bloodthirsty combatant, both of whom regularly dispatch fighters into contested areas surrounding Kabul. (See Your Tax Dollars at War.)

The new players: With US advice and funding, Karzai is trying to counter the Taliban through a pair of new initiatives. The Afghan Social Outreach Program is quietly building anti-Taliban local councils. A parallel program, the Afghan Public Protection Force, has a pilot project under way in Wardak province to build quasi-official militias not unlike the US-sponsored Sunni Awakening that mobilized Iraqi tribes against Al Qaeda. J Alexander Thier of the US Institute of Peace is hopeful. But, he says, "It scares the bejesus out of people because this would result in the arming of Pashtun militias. It's extremely risky."

Which gets us back to the question: What's the endgame of the surge-and-negotiate strategy? Already there is plenty of negotiating behind the scenes. Karzai has an ongoing dialogue with the Taliban, with former Taliban allies in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan mediating, and there are reports of talks involving Hekmatyar, too. But Obama's advisers are split on whether those top-down negotiations will work: Some suspect that there can be no deal as long as the Taliban think they're winning.

An alternative approach gaining favor inside the beltway is bottom-up negotiations to mirror the Taliban's village-by-village strategy. "This is a country that historically has had very little central government," General David McKiernan, the US commander, said last November. "But it's a government with a history of local autonomy and local tribal authority systems." Jones, of Rand, says the key is winning the loyalty of rural Afghans. If it's done right-if America maintains a light footprint, if tribal leaders see improvements in security (as well as cold, hard cash), and if Afghanistan's meddling neighbors can be persuaded to help stabilize the country-then the loyalties of the Pashtun tribes may turn. If that happens, Jones says hopefully, "They can tip pretty quickly." Of course, if the surge causes more civilian deaths and further inflames anger at the United States, they could just as easily tip the other way. Therein lies the great risk of Obama's
gamble.

.....

Robert Dreyfuss, a Nation contributing editor, is an investigative journalist in Alexandria, Virginia, specializing in politics and national security. He is the author of Devil's Game: How the United States Helped Unleash Fundamentalist Islam and is a frequent contributor to Rolling Stone, The American Prospect, and Mother Jones.

Colin Powell Got Snookered at CIA

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Ray McGovern
May 19, 2009 - CommonDreams.org

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Think back six years. How often did we hear then-Secretary of State Colin Powell tout his intense four-day vigil at CIA headquarters preparing the speech he would give to the United Nations Security Council on Feb. 5, 2003? Retired Army Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, Powell's chief of staff, who was asked by Powell to herd cats in putting that speech together, recently threw light on why it turned out to be such an acute embarrassment.

Surrogates of Vice President Dick Cheney were insisting on giving prominence to highly dubious reports of operational ties between al-Qaeda and Iraq, but on this particular issue (unlike the phantom WMD) CIA and State department intelligence analysts had stood firm in the face of heavy pressure. Indeed, the CIA ombudsman saw fit to tell Congress that never in his 32 years as a CIA analyst had he witnessed a more aggressive "hammering" on analysts to change their minds and give credence to reporting that was trash.

How was it, then, that Secretary Powell ended up citing a "sinister nexus between Iraq and the al-Qaeda terrorist network" to depict a relationship that did not exist? Fair labeling: Reading what follows may not make you quite as ill as reading the Department of Justice torture memos, but it may well sicken-and anger-you just the same.

According to Col. Wilkerson, just days before trying to sell the invasion of Iraq to the United Nations, his boss Colin Powell had decided not to regurgitate the dubious allegations about Saddam Hussein's ties to al-Qaeda. Just in the nick of time, however, top CIA officials produced a "bombshell" report alleging such ties. The information was more than a year old and apparently extricated via torture, but Powell took the bait.

Wilkerson says the key moment occurred on Feb. 1, 2003, as the two men labored at the CIA over Powell's presentation to the U.N. Security Council four days later.

"Powell and I had a one-on-one - no one else even in the room - about his angst over what was a rather dull recounting of several old stories about Al Qa'ida-Baghdad ties [in the draft speech]," Wilkerson said. "I agreed with him that what we had was bull___t, and Powell decided to eliminate all mention of terrorist contacts between AQ and Baghdad.

"Within an hour, [CIA Director George] Tenet and [CIA Deputy Director John] McLaughlin dropped a bombshell on the table in the director's conference room: a high-level AQ detainee had just revealed under interrogation substantive contacts between AQ and Baghdad, including Iraqis training AQ operatives in the use of chemical and biological weapons."

Although Tenet and McLaughlin wouldn't give Powell the identity of the al-Qaeda source, Wilkerson said he now understands that it was Ibn al-Sheikh al-Libi, who had been captured 15 months earlier; who later claimed he gave the CIA false information in the face of actual and threatened torture; and who now seems to be quite dead.

Presumably not realizing that the "new" intelligence was tainted, "Powell changed his mind and this information was included in his UNSC presentation, along with more general information from a previous draft about Baghdad's terrorist tendencies," Wilkerson said.

Wilkerson's account provides insight into how the need to justify war gave impetus to the use of torture for extracting information, and how the Bush administration's reliance on harsh interrogations of al-Qaeda suspects helped grease the skids to war. Both.

Sealing the Deal

Powell, whose credibility essentially sealed the deal for war as far as millions of Americans were concerned, let himself be manipulated by senior CIA officials who kept him in the dark about crucial details, including the fact that the Defense Intelligence Agency had thrown serious doubt on al-Libi's credibility. Wilkerson told me:

"As you can see, nowhere were we told that the high-level AQ operative had a name, or that he had been interrogated [in Egypt] with no US personnel present or much earlier rather than just recently (the clear implication of Tenet's breathtaking delivery).

"And not a single dissent was mentioned (later we learned of the DIA dissent) ... All of this was hidden from us - the specific identity, we were informed, due to the desire to protect sources and methods as well as a cooperative foreign intelligence service....

"As for me in particular, I learned the identity of al-Libi only in 2004 and of the DIA dissent about the same time, of al-Libi's recanting slightly later, and of the entire affair's probably being a Tenet-McLaughlin fabrication - to at least a certain extent - only after I began to put some things together and to receive reinforcement of the 'fabrication' theme from other examples."

Among those other examples, Wilkerson said, was the case of the Iraqi defector codenamed Curveball, who supplied false intelligence about mobile labs for making biological and chemical weapons, and various Iraqi walk-ins who spun bogus stories about an Iraqi nuclear weapons program.

Though some of those sources appear to have concocted their tales after being recruited by the pro-invasion exiles of the Iraqi National Congress, al-Libi told his stories-he later claimed-to avoid or stop torture. This is a central point in the current debate about why torture was used and whether it saved American lives.

Torture Can Produce

For those of you distracted by the Fawning Corporate Media (FCM) spotlight on "what-did-Pelosi-know-about-torture-and-when-did-she- know-it," please turn off the TV long enough to ponder the case of the recently departed al-Libi. According to a Libyan newspaper, al-Libi has died in a Libyan prison, a purported suicide.

The al-Libi case might help you understand why, even though information from torture is notoriously unreliable, President George W. Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and the me-too officials running U.S. intelligence ordered it anyway.

In short, if it is untruthful information you are after, torture can work just fine! As the distinguished Senator from South Carolina, Lindsey Graham put it during a Senate hearing on May 13-with a hat-tip to the Inquisition-"One of the reasons these techniques have been used for about 500 years is that they work."

All you really need to know is what you want the victims to "confess" to and then torture them, or render them abroad to "friendly" intelligence services toward the same end.

Poster Child for Torture

Al-Libi, born in 1963 in Libya, ran an al-Qaeda training camp in Afghanistan from 1995 to 2000. He was detained in Pakistan on Nov. 11, 2001, and then sent to a U.S. detention facility in Kandahar, Afghanistan. He was deemed a prize catch, since it was thought that he might know of, or at least be induced to "confess" to, Iraqi training of al-Qaeda.

The CIA successfully fought off the FBI for first rights to interrogate al-Libi. FBI's Dan Coleman, who "lost" al-Libi to the CIA (at whose orders, I wonder?), said, "Administration officials were always pushing us to come up with links" between Iraq and al-Qaeda.

Meanwhile, at the Guantanamo Bay prison in Cuba, Maj. Paul Burney, a psychiatrist sent there in summer 2002, says, "A large part of that time we were focused on trying to establish a link between al-Qaeda and Iraq, and we were not successful," according to Burney's recent testimony to the Senate. Burney added:

"The more frustrated people got in not being able to establish that link...there was more and more pressure to resort to measures that might produce more immediate results."

CIA interrogators elicited some "cooperation" from al-Libi through a combination of rough treatment and threats that he would be turned over to Egyptian intelligence with even greater experience in the torture business.

By June 2002, al-Libi had told the CIA that Iraq had "provided" unspecified chemical and biological weapons training for two al-Qaeda operatives, an allegation that soon found its way into other U.S. intelligence reports. Al-Libi's claim was well received even though the DIA was highly suspicious.

Serious Misgivings

"He lacks specific details" about the supposed training, DIA observed. "It is possible he does not know any further details; it is more likely this individual is intentionally misleading the debriefers. Ibn al-Shaykh has been undergoing debriefs for several weeks and may be describing scenarios to the debriefers that he knows will retain their interest."

Despite his cooperation, al-Libi was still shipped to Egypt where he underwent more abuse, according to a declassified CIA cable from 2004; the year al-Libi recanted his earlier statements. The cable reported that al-Libi said Egyptian interrogators wanted information about al-Qaeda's connections with Iraq, a subject "about which [al-Libi] said he knew nothing and had difficulty even coming up with a story." (This, despite the limited "success" CIA interrogators claimed to have had on this issue.)

According to the CIA cable, al-Libi said his interrogators did not like his responses and "placed him in a small box" for about 17 hours. After he was let out of the box, al-Libi was given a last chance to "tell the truth."

When his answers still did not satisfy, al-Libi says he "was knocked over with an arm thrust across his chest and fell on his back" and then was "punched for 15 minutes."

And, sure enough, as Sen. Lindsay Graham has noted, this stuff really works! For it was then that al-Libi expanded on his tales about collaboration between al-Qaeda and Iraq, adding that three al-Qaeda operatives had gone to Iraq "to learn about nuclear weapons." Al-Libi added that the treatment he received improved after he told that to his interrogators.

In any case, al-Libi's stories apparently were music to the ears of Colin Powell, who was under pressure to establish in his U.N. speech some evidence of a "sinister nexus" between Iraq and al-Qaeda-the "axis-of-evil" kind of epithet he ended up using to try to justify invading Iraq.

Al-Libi recanted his claims in January 2004. This prompted the CIA, a month later, to recall all intelligence reports based on his statements, a fact recorded in a footnote to the report issued by the 9/11 Commission. But he was really a big help before he recanted!

Just What the Doctor Ordered

George Bush relied on al-Libi's false confession for his crucial speech in Cincinnati on Oct. 7, 2002, just a few days before Congress voted on the Iraq War resolution. Bush declared, "We've learned that Iraq has trained al-Qaeda members in bomb making and poisons and deadly gases."

Colin Powell relied on it for his own speech to the U.N. on Feb. 5, 2003: "I can trace the story of a senior terrorist operative telling how Iraq provided training in these [chemical and biological] weapons to al-Qaeda. Fortunately, this operative is now detained, and he has told his story."

Bear in mind that before the attack on Iraq on March 19, 2003, polls showed that some 70 percent Americans believed that Saddam Hussein had operational ties with al-Qaeda and thus was partly responsible for the attacks of 9/11. Worse still, about half of the American people had been led to believe that Saddam was actually involved in 9/11.

For a while, al-Libi was practically the poster boy for the success of the Cheney/Bush torture regime; that is, at least until it was learned that he recanted, explaining that he only told his interrogators what he thought would stop the torture.

In his disingenuous memoir, At the Center of the Storm, George Tenet sought to defend the CIA's acceptance of the original claims made by al-Libi in the run-up to the Iraq war. Tenet even suggested that al-Libi may have been right the first time-that it may have been his subsequent recantation that was not genuine.

"He clearly lied," Tenet wrote. "We just don't know when. Did he lie when he first said that Al Qaeda members received training in Iraq or did he lie when he said they did not? In my mind, either case might still be true."

I am not making this up. That incisive analysis appears on page 353 of Tenet's book.

Tenet, of course, is hardly a disinterested observer. If there was a CIA plan to extract a false confession, it's likely he was a key participant. After all, he devoted 2002-03 to the mission of manufacturing a "slam-dunk" WMD-case for invading Iraq, in order to please his bosses. He had both the motive and the opportunity to commit this crime and, later, huge incentive to cover it up.

Al-Libi "Commits Suicide"

If al-Libi is now dead - strangely our embassy in Tripoli has been unable to find out for sure - this means the world will never hear his own account of the torture he experienced and the story he made up and then recanted. And we have already been asked to believe he "committed suicide" even though al-Libi apparently was a devout Muslim, and Islam prohibits suicide.

Hafed al-Ghwell, a Libyan-American and a prominent critic of the Gaddafi regime, explained to Newsweek, "This idea of committing suicide in your prison cell is an old story in Libya." He added that, throughout Gaddafi's 40-year rule, there have been several instances in which political prisoners were reported to have committed suicide, but that "then the families get the bodies back and discover the prisoners had been shot in the back or tortured to death."

Am I suggesting...?

Anatomy of a Crime

Commenting on what he called the "Cheney interrogation techniques," Col. Wilkerson, writing for The Washington Note on May 13, made the following points:

"...as the administration authorized harsh interrogation in April and May of 2002 - well before the Justice Department had rendered any legal opinion - its principal priority for intelligence was not aimed at pre-empting another terrorist attack on the U.S. but on discovering a smoking gun linking Iraq to al-Qaeda.

"So furious was this effort on one particular detainee, even when the interrogation team had reported to Cheney's office that their detainee 'was compliant' (meaning the team recommended no more torture), the VP's office ordered them to continue the enhanced methods. The detainee had not revealed any al-Qa'ida-Baghdad contacts yet.

"As far as al-Libi is concerned, his harsh interrogation ceased after, under waterboarding in Egypt, he 'revealed' such contacts. Of course later we learned that al-Libi revealed these contacts only to get the torture to stop."

Cheney Family Honor

Stung by Wilkerson's criticism of her father, Liz Cheney, who worked in the State Department during the Bush/Cheney administration, lashed out publicly at Wilkerson on Sunday, charging he has made "a cottage industry out of fantasies" about the former Vice President. All that Ms. Cheney could manage in support of her contention was to point out that al-Libi was not among the three al-Qaeda detainees the CIA has said it waterboarded.

After his article in The Washington Note, I asked Col. Wilkerson for a retrospective look at how it could have been that the torture-derived information from al-Libi was not recognized for what it was and thus kept out of Secretary Powell's speech at the UN.

Since al-Libi had been captured over a year before the speech and had been put at the tender mercies of the Egyptian intelligence service, should he and Powell not have suspected that al-Libi had been tortured?

Wilkerson responded by e-mail with the comments cited above regarding Tenet and McLaughlin interrupting Powell's evaluation of the Iraqi WMD intelligence with their new -just trust us-"bombshell."

I asked Col. Wilkerson: "Were there no others from the State Department with you at CIA headquarters on Feb. 1, 2003. Was the Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR), State's very professional, incorruptible intelligence unit, not represented? He answered:

"When I gathered 'my team' - some were selected for me, such as Will Toby from Bob Joseph's NSC staff and John Hanna from the VP's office - in my office at State to give them an initial briefing and marching orders, I asked Carl [Ford, then head of INR] to attend. I wanted Carl - or even more so, one of his deputies whom I knew well and trusted completely, Tom Fingar - to be on 'my team'.

"Carl stayed after the meeting and I asked him straightforwardly to come with me or to send someone from INR. Carl said that he did not need to come or to send anyone because he had the Secretary's ear (he was right on that) and could weigh in at any time he wanted to.

"Moreover, he told me, the Secretary knew very well where INR stood, as did I myself (he was right on that too).

"As I look back, I believe one of my gravest errors was in not insisting that INR send someone with me.

"Fascinating and completely puzzling at first was the total absence of a Department of Defense representative on my team; however, after 3-4 days and nights I figured out ... DoD was covering its own butt, to an extent, by having no direct fingerprints on the affair - and being directly wired into Cheney's office, Rumsfeld's folks knew they were protected by Toby and Hanna.

"When we all arrived at CIA, we were given the NIC [National Intelligence Council] spaces and staff. [But] I could not even get on a computer!! Protests to Tenet and McLaughlin got me perfunctory CIA-blah blah about security clearances, etc. - and me with 7 days and nights to prepare a monumentally important presentation! ...

"[It took] 24 hours before George or John acknowledged I could be on a computer.... From there on, it was a madhouse.

"But at the end of the day, had I had an INR rep, had I had better support, had I been more concerned with WHAT I was assembling rather than HOW on earth I would assemble it and present it on time, I'm not sure at all it would have made any difference in the march to war."

Not the Only Criminal Activity

So there you have it folks, the anatomy of a crime - one of several such already on the record, with some of the same dramatis personae.

Mention of Carl Ford and Tenet and McLaughlin remind me of another episode that has gone down in the annals of intelligence as almost equally contemptible. This one had to do with their furious attempt to prove there were mobile biological weapons labs of the kind Curveball had described.

Remember, Tenet and McLaughlin had been warned about Curveball long before they let then-Secretary of State Powell shame himself, and the rest of us, by peddling Curveball's wares at the U.N. Security Council on Feb. 5, 2003. But the amateur attempts at deception did not stop there. After the war began, CIA intrepid analysts, still "leaning forward," misrepresented a tractor-trailer found in Iraq outfitted with industrial equipment as one of the mobile bio-labs.

On May 28, 2003, CIA analysts cooked up a fraudulent six-page report claiming that the trailer discovered earlier in May was proof they had been right about Iraq's "bio-weapons labs."

They then performed what in Army parlance is called a "midnight requisition," finding the only Defense Intelligence Agency analyst sympathetic to their position and getting him to provide DIA "coordination," (which was almost immediately withdrawn by DIA).

On May 29, President George W. Bush, visiting Poland, proudly announced on Polish TV, "We have found the weapons of mass destruction." (For a contemporaneous debunking of the CIA-DIA report, see "America's Matrix," http://www.consortiumnews.com/2003/060103a.html)

When the State Department's Intelligence and Research (INR) analysts realized that this was not some kind of Polish joke, they "went ballistic," according to Carl Ford, who immediately warned Powell there was a very large problem. Tenet, in turn, must have learned of this quickly, for he called Ford on the carpet, literally, the following day. No shrinking violet, Ford held his ground. He told Tenet and McLaughlin, "That report is one of the worst intelligence assessments I've ever read."

What seems clear is that Tenet and McLaughlin learned nothing from their decision just four months earlier to play fast and loose with intelligence-regardless of the risk of heavy embarrassment to the Secretary of State or, in this case, the President.

"They Should Have Been Shot"

This episode-and several like it-are described in Hubris: The Inside Story of Spin, Scandal, and the Selling of the Iraq War by Michael Isikoff and David Corn, who say that Ford is still angry over the fraudulent paper. Ford told the authors:

"It was clear that they [Tenet and McLaughlin] had been personally involved in the preparation of the [bio-weapons labs] report. As it turned out, that analysis was unprofessional and even unethical. People did funny thing with the evidence...It wasn't just that it was wrong. They lied...they should have been shot." (Page 229)

Small wonder Ford has remained angry-like Wilkerson. It was all just too much. Ford knew he had made a huge mistake in early Feb. 2003, by assuming that Colin Powell would face down the blandishments of Tenet, McLaughlin, and the White House members of Wilkerson's team.

The way these things normally work, it was not unreasonable for Ford to assume further that he would have the opportunity, in extremis, to trade on his credibility with, and entrée to, Secretary Powell to thwart the CIA seniors, if they peddled their meretricious wares at CIA headquarters.

In the end, Powell went along; Col. Wilkerson was left to twist slowly in the wind, so to speak. Bush, Cheney, and their courtiers prevailed and our country embarked on what the post-WWII Nuremberg Tribunal termed the "supreme international crime"-a war of aggression.

Sad. Very sad. Criminal, I would say.

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Ray McGovern works with Tell the Word, the publishing arm of the ecumenical Church of the Saviour in Washington, DC. During his career as a CIA analyst, he prepared and briefed the President's Daily Brief and chaired National Intelligence Estimates. He is a member of the Steering Group of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity.