Shen Dingli
Apr 28, 2009 - Asia Times
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SHANGHAI - North Korea has said it will permanently quit the six-party talks on its nuclear program. Although an undesirable outcome from the perspective of non-proliferation, it is a predictable move by Pyongyang. This has put immediate pressure on China-North Korea relations. Why has China been unable to prevent this from happening? And what will be Beijing's next step?
North Korea may have a lot of reasons to be resentful of the international system, in which it feels insecure and threatened, but this radical, confrontational move will not help.
Pyongyang should welcome the new international environment. Since the Barack Obama administration took over in the United States it has signaled it is ready to solve international disputes through dialogue. Yet North Korea still went ahead with its controversial "satellite" launch on April 4. This has fueled tensions in East Asia, and other players in the region have said the reckless move will certainly not be beneficial to the North.
Pyongyang does not have many international allies, and China is the key, if not sole, supplier of essential aid to it in areas ranging from food to energy, medicine to fertilizers, and cash to conventional weapons. But China also has its own reasons for maintaining ties, which include maintaining neighborly relations, the nations' comradeship in the Cold War era, and lingering geopolitical and strategic considerations.
However, China also has broader interests as a result of its past three decades of reform and opening up. Beijing plans to modernize its economy and society, and this requires a secure and peaceful neighborhood along its entire periphery. The present North Korean stance of seeking security through owning nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles does not agree with Beijing's.
Beijing has accommodated some of the Pyongyang regime's basic needs for survival, but North Korea has not repaid China in kind. North Korea assumes that the best way to attain benefits and ensure its survival is to put pressure on Washington through its nuclear and missile programs. This could be why Beijing has failed to dissuade Pyongyang from taking aggressive and provocative moves.
North Korea may resent any intervention by China in its foreign and defense policies, but it is also aware that China poses no threat to its security. North Korea's paramount security concern remains the United States.
Although North Korea is fully entitled to guard its sovereignty, its lack of interest in respecting Beijing's legitimate concerns will not help it sustain friendly relations with China. Respect and friendship must be reciprocal. If North Korea continues to recklessly jeopardize China's legitimate security interests while still receiving Chinese aid, Beijing will inevitably be forced to review its relationship with Pyongyang.
It is obvious that the current sanctions regime against North Korea, which is related to nuclear and missile technologies, heavy armaments and luxuries, has nothing to do with China's existing trade or aid to the country. But given the provocative behavior of North Korea, these sanctions could be strengthened and expanded.
One could question the wisdom of North Korea's recent launch, whether it was a missile or satellite and regardless of its success or failure. It is understandable that North Korea sees a deterrence factor in its nuclear program. But is it conceivable that Washington plans to launch a pre-emptive strike against Pyongyang? No. So why does the Hermit Kingdom want to waste its resources on nuclear and missile programs?
North Korea must be aware of Beijing's increasingly sophisticated and successful handling of its relationships with the rest of the world. Pyongyang's geopolitical and strategic importance for China will not increase, and therefore it could well become the victim of its own self-isolation.
China has done its part, and any failures will be the outcome of Pyongyang's own strategic mindset or Washington's stubborn unwillingness to effectively engage North Korea. The George W Bush administration was first too arrogant to engage with North Korea and later too eager after Pyongyang's proclaimed nuclear test. Neither was a healthy policy approach.
The international community needs to draft a new strategy to engage North Korea that is effective. It must be based on the principle that the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction constitutes a threat to world peace and security. This is the United Nations Security Council's view which is supported by China and other countries.
North Korea's nuclear weapons development can be averted with a strategy that includes at least three components:
The first is to make non-militarily overtures to North Korea that would render its nuclear program militarily useless, and economically self-destructive.
The second would be to not accept North Korea's nuclear status unless the weapons program was aborted. This would entail strategic cooperation among major powers. The US is the key to the success of such international cooperation. Washington's proper handling of the Taiwan issue is crucial to fostering the necessary confidence between China and the United States to form a united front.
The third tactic would be to impose incremental economic sanctions against North Korea to make it realize that its nuclear and missile programs are not welcome or rewarding. Given the availability of sanctions at various incremental levels, the international community has to take measured steps to send the right signals to affect its behavior.
In this regard, China is expected to be more proactive in using its own economic leverage on Pyongyang. This has to be taken in a concerted way - together with non-militarily overtures and measured political and economic pressure from the outside world.
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Professor Shen Dingli is director of Center for American Studies and executive dean of the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University, Shanghai
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