Kris Maher
MAY 1, 2009 - Wall Street Journal
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Sen. Arlen Specter's decision to switch parties says as much about the transformation of state politics in the swing state of Pennsylvania as it does about Washington.
Pennsylvania has gone from barely blue to solidly blue, in large part because the state's Democratic leadership under Gov. Ed Rendell and Sen. Bob Casey has widened the party's influence and popularity by focusing on local issues like jobs, health care and education -- themes that may be playing well during a time of economic stress.
At the same time, the Republican Party has focused more on national security and tax cuts.
"This state is in major transition," said Terry Madonna, a political scientist at Franklin & Marshall College, Lancaster, Pa. "The moderate base of the Republican Party is defecting, and that has put them in a precarious position in the state."
Across the state, counties that have voted Republican since the Civil War have gone Democrat, while the T-shaped conservative region in the state's rural midsection and north has been aging and losing population. Meanwhile, there has been an influx of people into the more liberal Philadelphia region. Others moving into the northeast part of the state, especially from New Jersey, also tend to vote Democrat.
Since 2004, 200,000 of the state's Republican voters have switched their party affiliation and become Democrats. In 2006, conservative Republican Rick Santorum, who argued that the theory of intelligent design should be taught alongside evolution and whose statements about homosexuality were viewed as intolerant by some voters, was soundly defeated in his bid for a third term by Sen. Casey.
Sen. Specter said his move to the Democratic side came after he assessed his chances for winning re-election in Pennsylvania, following his key vote in favor of President Barack Obama's stimulus package, which angered Republicans and prompted Republican Pat Toomey to declare that he would run in the Senate primary. In 2004, Mr. Toomey, who supports lower taxes and limited government, narrowly lost to Sen. Specter in the party primary.
"I have traveled the state," Sen. Specter said, "and have found that the prospects for winning a Republican primary are bleak."
Sen. Casey said he believes some voters in the state have left the Republican Party because of its "emphasis on ideology even in the face of what I believe are fairly urgent priorities of getting the economy out of the ditch."
Sen. Casey, who is pro-life, said the Democrats also have realized "that if they insist on ideological litmus tests or orthodoxy, then they lose elections." His own father, Bob Casey Sr., who was Pennsylvania's Democratic governor from 1987 to 1995, clashed with the party over his pro-life views.
Michael Barley, a spokesman for the Republican Party of Pennsylvania, said his party doesn't have a litmus test. "We're open to anybody that shares our commitment of less government and less taxes." He said the shift in the past decade from Republicans holding top elected positions to Democrats "typifies how much of a swing state we are. We're going to be back."
One survey last fall of Pennsylvania voters who had switched party affiliation from Republican to Democratic found that two-thirds said the Bush administration's policies were a significant factor in their decision, according to Chris Borick, a political scientist at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, Pa.
Elizabeth McCabe, 45 years old, of the Philadelphia suburb of North Wales, switched parties last year over what she described as disappointment with the Bush administration and to support then-Sen. Obama in the state's Democratic primary.
Ms. McCabe, who first registered Republican when she turned 18, said her only hesitation in making the move was her pro-life stance. She approves of President Obama's performance, but said she's not sure if she will vote for Sen. Specter. "I'm disappointed because I think there are some other people who were going to run from the Democratic Party who could have been a better choice."
Another factor in turning Pennsylvania blue, say experts, was the 2002 election of Gov. Rendell, an effective fund-raiser who was also a major campaign force in the 2006 midterm elections. Democrats picked up four Congressional seats in the 2006 midterm elections and one seat last year.
"The short answer to what happened to Pennsylvania is Ed Rendell and his incredible ability to raise money and spend it and energize the Democrats," said William J. Green, a Pittsburgh-based political analyst, who is a Republican.
Meanwhile, a big challenge facing Sen. Specter is winning support from organized labor, which is a major political force in the state. Labor leaders were unhappy with Sen. Specter's decision not to support a key piece of pro-labor legislation known as the Employee Free Choice Act.
"I think it's great that he sees that the direction of the Republican Party is disconnected from the mainstream of the country," said Leo Gerard, president of the United Steelworkers, which is based in Pittsburgh. But he added that Sen. Specter "still has to be re-educated" on labor-law reform, health care and trade policy.
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